04
July
In May 2022, seafood export recorded climbed 34% yoy and -6% mom to USD1,062mn. Shrimp and pangasius export increased 31% and 67% yoy in May. Shrimp export flatted as April, while pangasius export maintains rally increase yoy and dropped 20% mom compared to high based April export.
24
June
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During May 22, we observed the weak demand in both domestic and export markets. We also continue to expect the temporary price retreat will end soon after COVID-19 restrictions ease in China.
16
June
Total insurance premium accumulated in 4M22 was pegged VND74,036bn (+14.1% yoy). Growth rate up to 4M22 for life insurance premium was 14.5% which continues to be less positive when compared to growth rate above 20% in 2020 and 2021. The losing growing momentum is claimed to delayed effect of COVID19. Having to be mentioned that the current pace is just weaker than one in previous period and we do not see any bad sign in long-term sector’s outlook. Contrast to Life insurance, Non-life maintained an impressive growth rate. Particularly, 4M22 premium growth rate was 13%, much higher than 2020 and 2021 performance which is 6.2% and 3.98%, respectively. The main motivation comes from high-proportion products namely Health insurance as well as Motor vehicle insurance.
09
June
In May 2022, total electricity production was 23.34bn kWh (+3.2% mom, -2.7% yoy). Hydropower output also surged 47.9% yoy, 44.7% mom to hit 8.31bn kWh in the context of rising gas and coal prices when coal and gas thermal power output plunged. Vinacomin and Dong Bac pledged to supply enough coal for remaining months when total coal volume supplied to power plants is expected to reach 43.99mn tonnes. The nuclear power plant and Block B - O Mon projects are considered to be resumed to meet surging power demand.
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained stellar with 23.4% yoy and 0.6% mom, to USD3.1bn in May. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.6bn, +23.5% yoy/0.7% mom and accounting for 51% of Vietnam’s total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 5M22, Vietnam’s textile and...
07
June
May exports of rice/cassava/rubber were USD386mn/USD119mn/USD181mn, leaping by 40%/13%/28% mom and 14%/38%/27% yoy. Total agricultural plants formed a USD1,789mn export value (+10% mom and +13% yoy) and rice constituted the biggest share with 22%, followed by coffee (19%), cashew (18%), vegetables (17%) and rubber (10%). In the context that countries are rushing to ensure food security, we expect Viet Nam could ramp up agricultural export output in the next months.
02
June
Urea/NPK/Phosphate/DAP production volume in May were 197,900/283,700/91,200/38,000 tonnes. Export volume jumped 54% yoy/7% mom to hit 160,000 tonnes, with the total value of USD106mn. On average, the export price was USD663/tonne (-3% mom and +91% yoy). Although it may be difficult to achieve the “idealy” export volume in Jan-22, exports in May was still relatively high compared to other months in 2021.
31
May
The seafood export thrived to USD2.5bn (+46% yoy) in 1Q22, mainly driven by sales revival in all markets for all seafood categories. Hence, 24 listed seafood exporters recorded a VND16tn revenue (+47.5% yoy) and VND1,281bn NPAT (+2.4x yoy). We maintain OUTWEIGHT rating even the seafood stocks were up sharply in1H22. We believe the rally is persisting through 3Q22F given clear earnings momentum backed by sound business conditions.
27
May
Based on our estimates, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of listed T&G and yarn companies perked up 32.6%/22.6% yoy while NPATMI soared 71.5%/ 22.3% yoy, respectively. Top companies include VGG (+550% yoy), HTG (+247.6% yoy), and VGT (+102% yoy). 2Q is a typical peak period when production begins for the next fall/winter season. Inventory assets swelled 24.5% yoy as of end-1Q22 in T&G companies, and this demonstrates healthy conditions among clients. Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover in Apr 2022 sustains the revival growth of 28.4% yoy and 3.6% mom to USD3.1bn. Revenue recovery could ramp up in 2Q22F for T&G segments.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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