28
February
The total agriculture export value was more than USD1.6bn in Feb-23 (+7% mom, +39% yoy). In which, coffee remained the highest value exported product with USD393mn (+12% mom, +29% yoy), and it accounted for 24% of total agriculture export turnover, followed by vegetables (21%) and rice (14%). Coffee exporters also recorded a growth of 13% mom in terms of volume, to 180,000 tons.
20
February
Overall, the management anticipates that net revenue and net profit in 2023F will rise by 14% yoy and 15% yoy respectively, more significantly from 2H23, along with the expected to be lower interest rate and cooling of inflation. More specifically, DGW expects mobile phone sales in 2023F will improve by 13% yoy, office equipment sales up by 17% yoy, home appliance sale up by 65% yoy and the consumer good sale to surge by 157%.
20
February
On Feb 17, we tuned in to the AM of BCG to be covered with their 2022 recap related to business results and operation climate. What we felt relived is the enhancement of balance sheet with a debt/equity ratio plunging to 1.1x as of end-4Q22 and less pressure of due bond payment in the short term. However, we still stay skeptical on their escalating debt, potential dilution risk, and ample sensitivity to the hospitality property market where the majority of BCG’s projects are tourism/resorts.
17
February
Accumulating 2022, MWG’s net revenue went up by 8% yoy to VND133tn, MWG had met 95% of the revenue guidance. In 2023F, TGDD&DMX keep being the cash cow, contributing 75%-80% of MWG’s revenue, BHX is expected to contribute 20%-25% of MWG’s revenue. MWG will restrict operation of AVASports and Bluetronics due to low potential to focus on other key business in 2023.
17
February
Total Jan steel sales volume posted 85,232 tonnes, dropping by 40.9% yoy and 27.6% mom amid long Tet holiday. The coated steel export volume (29,304 tonnes) was down significantly by 62.6% yoy and 36.4% mom.
17
February
Total Jan steel sales volume posted 43,370 tonnes, falling by 34.6% mom and 53.8% you amid long Tet holiday. The coated steel export volume (20,513 tonnes) stumbled 69.7% yoy and decreased by 25.6% mom.
16
February
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Jan 23, we observed the significant drop in total sales volume due to long Tet holiday in Vietnam.
15
February
The seafood industry exported USD2.5bn (-7% yoy and -6% qoq) in 4Q22 due to the decrease of pangasius and shrimp export by -15.4% yoy and -13% yoy, also both exports decreased by -15% qoq, respectively. As a result, 23 listed seafood exporters recorded a VND12,356bn revenue (-10.9% yoy) and VND791bn NPAT (-16.6% yoy) in 4Q22. We estimate that seafood exporters’ revenue growth would slow down since lower seafood export volume in most markets in 1Q23. Yet, export to China seems brighter outlook.
13
February
According to Customs, in Jan, total fertilizer export volume was more than 127,000 tonnes (-66% yoy, -4% mom), equivalent to USD64mn (-79% yoy, -2% mom). Total urea/NPK production in Jan was nearly 226,000/243,000 tonnes (+1%/-26% yoy, +2%/7% mom), respectively. In 2022, Vietnam exported USD1.2bn of fertilizer (+113% yoy).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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