Tiếng Việt
普通话
30
March
Agriculture (Plants) – Brief – Nonrated – Rice export value boomed
Rice export volume rocketed by 109% mom and 80% yoy to 900,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, rice exporting value surged by 108% mom and 95% yoy to USD480mn in Mar-23.
Research Center
15
March
NKG-Brief-[HOLD]-Sales volume recovered
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 67,738 tonnes, increasing by 56.2% mom and 9.7% yoy. The 2M23 total sales volume came in at 111,108 tonnes, -28.6% yoy. In which, the steel coat volume declined 33.7% yoy to 85,285 tonnes and the steel pipes volume was down by 4.2% yoy to 25,823 tonnes.
15
March
HSG-Brief-[HOLD]-Sales volume increased on m-o-m basis
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 102,259 tonnes, dropping by 35.0% yoy but increasing 20.0% mom. The FY5M23 (Oct 2023-Feb 2023) total sale decreased 41.2% yoy to 527,462 tonnes as steel pipes volume declined 22.8% yoy to 121,279 tonnes and steel coat fell 45.2% yoy to 406,183 tonnes.
14
March
HPG-Brief-[HOLD]-Feb23 Weak demand
Total Feb steel sales volume posted 549,767 tonnes, decreasing by 30.6% yoy but increasing by 18.5% mom. The 2M23 total finished-product sale volume dropped significantly to 1,013,881 tonnes, -32.2% yoy. Of which, all products sale volumes declined due to high base in 2022.
14
March
Steel-Brief-[Neutral]-Sales volume improved on m-o-m basis
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Feb 23, we observed an improvement in total sales volume on m-o-m basis.
13
March
VHC – Brief [HOLD] – Monthly updates: Low export to largest market
Vinh Hoan delivered a preliminary VND758bn revenue, decreasing 29.5% yoy since the pangasius export shrunk by 46.9% yoy in Feb. The pangasius export volume decreased sharply by 26.4% yoy due to the lessened import of US and China markets.
10
March
Fertilizer – Brief – Neutral – High inventory
Domestic production capacity has exceeded current domestic demand by at least 40%. Due to the falling price of fertilizer, farmers are postponing purchasing fertilizer, that led to a very high inventory and low sales of fertilizer in 1Q23.
10
March
HSG-AGM Brief-[HOLD]-To be profitable from Feb
On Mar 10, Hoa Sen Group (HSG) held the Annual General Meeting. The company sets conservative FY2023 guidance with 2 scenario due to the uncertainty from geopolitical conflicts and global high borrowing-rate environment.
09
March
Textile & Garment – Brief – [Nonrated] – In a pickle
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment slightly increased 11.1% yoy and 1.9% mom to USD2.3bn in February. The export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 6.7% yoy and 2.8% mom to USD964mn, making up 42% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. We think 1Q23F is full of difficulties for the textile industry when it could suffer a dip in apparel demand, especially in the US market. However, we expect that the outlook will be brighter thanks to the recovery of orders in 2Q23F.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.