Research Center

On Apr 18, we attended AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. What we feel is vague lies in the right issuance plan up to a VND600bn receipt in 2H23F to refinance or shore up the working capital demand for Chau Duc industrial /real estate. Given the abundant cash balance and flattish yoy growth of net profit in 2023, we think the trade of the diluted share risk for investment growth prospect is not justified. Based on management's guidance of 2023F profit, 12MF PE of 15.3 times trailed the 2-year median of 15.1x, higher than the average TTM VNINDEX of 9-11x. We believe this premium is not reasonable in light of its flattish net profit growth and risky net gearing.

Total Mar steel sales volume posted 107,020 tonnes, dropping by 33.0% yoy but increasing 4.7% mom. Steel coat volume made up 80.8% of the Mar total sales volume at 86,505 tonnes, +2.7% mom but -28.4% yoy.

Total Mar steel sales volume posted 83,590 tonnes, increasing by 23.4% mom but -17.8% yoy. The 3M23 total sales volume came in at 194,698 tonnes, -24.3% yoy.

Total Mar steel sales volume posted 567,651 tonnes, decreasing by 39.1% yoy but increasing by 3.3% mom. The total Mar domestic sales volume rised by 0.9% mom to 487,134 tonnes.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Mar 23, we observed an contiuing improvement in total sales volume on m-o-m basis.

1Q23 preliminary revenue posted VND2,247bn (-30.3% yoy and -12.5% qoq), backed by the tumble revenue of most products yoy and qoq, especially pangasius. 1Q23 revenue fulfill 18.5% our estimates. We maintain a HOLD rating.

Sao Ta Foods secured in the Top 3 Vietnamese shrimp exporters with USD217.7mn export value (in 2022). Although our outlook on the shrimp industry in 2023 would slow down, we believe Sao Ta Food could increase 5.8% yoy revenue and +16.4% yoy NPAT in 2023. In the other hand, the capacity increase and farming system expansion would be the long-term drivers. As such, we initiate FMC with a BUY rating on stable growth, sustainable strategy in long-term prospect .

Vietnam is one of the top 3 largest shrimp exporting countries in the world, making up about 10.1% market share of the global shrimp exporting industry value. In 2023, shrimp market was projected to slow down. Yet, we believe that the Vietnamese shrimp industry's growth rate will increase till 2030.

We initiate our coverage on PV GAS (GAS VN) with a BUY rating and target price of VND117,700 implying a 18.8% upside by using a DCF (70%) and PE (30%) methodology. In DCF method, we calculate the fair value of VND122,500/share with implied long-term growth of 4.0%, and WACC of 11.5%. With PE method, our target price is based on an average 2023-25F P/E of 18x. GAS is our top pick in oil & gas sector thanks to strong growth potential based on the high demand for natural gas and LNG in Vietnam. The risks of GAS comprise a drop of oil prices and delaying projects.