![HPG-Earnings Review-[HOLD]- Worse than expected](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
30
January
HPG’ revenue decreased 42.2% yoy to VND25,825bn in 4Q22 driven mainly by steel segment. The 4Q22 NPAT-MI posted a loss of VND1,991bn. The 12M22 results fulfil 102%/80% our Revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts.
30
January
According to GSO estimate, crude oil exploitation in Jan decreased slightly to 713,000 tonnes (-7.1% mom, -3.7% yoy). Meanwhile, crude oil export and import volume went down strongly mom but increased yoy to 200,000 tonnes (-33.3% mom, +11.1% yoy), and 1.0 mn tonnes (-28.6% mom, +42.9% yoy), respectively. Petroleum import volume and value went up strongly yoy to 1.0 mn tonnes (-16.7% mom, +51.5% yoy) and USD879mn (-20.6% mom, +87.2% yoy), respectively.
30
January
HSG’ revenue decreased significantly 53.2% yoy to VND7,917bn in 1QFY23 driven mainly by the weak global demand. In which, the total export volume in 1QFY23 dropped to 138,923 tonnes, -60.6% yoy, +47.0% qoq. The 1QFY23 NPAT-MI posted a loss of VND680.2bn.
30
January
PDR released its 4Q22 result with a PBT loss of VND296.6bn vs a PBT income of VND947bn in 4Q21. The 4Q22 income statement looked dim but the 4Q22 balance sheet seemed shinny given the net debt shrunk by 19.5% to VND4.1bn as of end-4Q22 vs VND5.2tn as of end-3Q22. However, we are much weighed by fear of sluggish market sentiment of retail equity investors who could dip the PDR price down more, triggering the bondholders to acquire more collateral or ask for buying back.
30
January
DXG released its 4Q22 result with a PBT loss of VND424bn vs a PBT income of VND361bn in 4Q21. The loss seems extraordinary but likely given the expected revenue sluggishness foreseen in 3Q22. Actually, DXG introduces a VND984bn revenue featuring -21.6% qoq and -56.6% yoy in 4Q22 due to the miss of the launch of Gem Riverside and the deliver of Opal Skyline.
27
January
On Jan 21, KDH released its 4Q22 results, featuring a VND1,234.1bn revenue and a VND118.9bn NPAT . The actual 2022 performance missed the company estimates and ours at 72.7/78.7% . We will factor in slower presales in 2022F-23F to reflect the true landscape of KDH’s earnings.
27
January
NKG’ revenue decreased significantly 51.8% yoy to VND4,229bn in 4Q22 driven mainly by the weak global demand. The 4Q22 NPAT-MI posted a loss of VND356.3bn whilst the gross profit was negative. Weak demand continues to be our main concern in 2023 due to the impact of global economic slow-down.
19
January
NLG’s revenue came in at VND1,629bn in 4Q22 driven property sale (VND1,532bn, +78.8% qoq, -65.3% yoy). Contrary to gloomy revenue growth, net profit and profit of controlling interest surged to VND590/437bn, equaling to 11x qoq/-23.3% yoy and 10x qoq/+20.9% yoy. We will factor in the revaluation gains and presales in 2022F-23F to reflect the true landscape of NLG’s earnings.
19
January
On Jan 18, DGC posted 4Q22 business results with a revenue of VND3,112bn (-16% qoq, -10% yoy) and a NPAT of VND1,124bn (-26% qoq, -20% you). In 2022, DGC recorded VND14,444bn revenue (+51% yoy), and VND6,041bn NPAT (+140% yoy), fulfilling 119%/173% of their full-year guidance.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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