Research Center

In 43W23, interest rates in the money market generally cooled down as a massive amount of SBV’s bills matured. Specifically, VND73.80bn matured while SBV newly offered VND25.55tn, leading to a net injection of VND48.25tn into the banking system this week. The overnight interbank rate rose slightly by 33bps, and the 10-year government bond yield even dropped by 16bps. Similarly, the USDVND uptrend eased with a modest increase of 0.12% compared to the last trading date of 42W23. We predict that Vietnam's monetary authority will issue more bills in the coming weeks in the context that lending activities in October remained gloomy to keep the exchange rate stable. Hence, short-lived funding costs in the money market will likely be more expensive than in previous weeks.

Economic activities accelerated further in October, primarily thanks to the impressive improvement in export activities. In more detail, it seems the negative impact of external factors on Vietnam's economy has become less severe when the end of the global trajectory of rate hikes was counting down. Export turnover continued growing at a higher pace, and registered FDI surged. However, domestic consumption decelerated significantly due to prolonged cautious spending, subdued foreign tourism, and a lingering reduction in manufacturing employment. For future developments, we expect the export activities to recover and overwhelmingly drive economic activities to accelerate in the next month.

Liquidity condition in the money market this week seems to be tight after a series of bill offerings, with the interbank rate for short tenors surging on the last trading day. ON, 1-week, 2-week, and 1-month rates rose by 89bps, 97bps, 95bps, and 65bps, respectively. Also, the trading and winning G-bond yields continuously rose, especially in the mid and long tenors, likely reflecting the rising yields environment returned.. With a dominating newly offering amount, SBV likely signals to the market participants that the balance point for short-term funding costs could be higher unless USDVND cools down significantly.

This report delves into the current dynamics of U.S. G -Bond yields rising and its potential impacts on Vietnam. We explore the driving factors behind the surging yields, including term premiums, short-term rate adjustments, economic outlook, the influence of Treasury supply versus overseas demand, and Fitch’s downgrade on U.S. ratings. Additionally, we analyze the perspective of Federal Reserve leaders regarding rising yields and their potential to act as a substitute for rate hikes.

The money market experienced one more worrying week with USDVND increasing for the second consecutive week amid persistently negative USD-VND rate differentials and a strong DXY. SBV continued issuing bills to provide a channel for excessive liquidity when interbank rates dropped sharply. For the next week, SBV's VND20.00tn bills, issued one month ago, will start to mature. The actions taken by the central bank may reveal its short-term tendency to combat the exchange rate swing. If SBV decides to issue a more significant amount of new bills, it could indicate the commitment to stabilize USDVND, even if this decision leads to increased funding costs in the money market.

We predict economic activities to accelerate in 4Q23 with a growth rate of 7.5% YoY, resulting in an increase of 5.18% YoY for 2023. On the upside, we expect an impressive turnaround in exports due to the increasing demand from the U.S. and China, especially the inventories of U.S. wholesalers and retailers becoming leaner. Besides, the promising public spending continues to drive the investment demand to grow significantly. On the downside, we predict domestic consumption to grow at a softer pace in the last quarter due to the gloomy income prospect, especially in the manufacturing sector, while inflation could elevate in the next period associated with global movements of food and energy prices. Notably, upward pressure on the exchange rate could persist due to seasonally thinner trade surplus and rising carry trade activities. However, we weigh more on SBV’s efforts to secure FX stability and predict USDVND to decline modestly in the last.

The effect of SBV’s liquidity withdrawal, through bill offerings, on the money market this week becomes more significant this week. Interest rates for short-lived tenors, ranging from overnight to 1-month, rose generally by around 80bps compared to last week. Similarly, 10-year and 15-year G-bond yields increased by 19bps and 16bps, respectively. However, the USDVND rebounded strongly due to a broad appreciation of the greenback following the intensified U.S. government bond sell-off.

The money market this week witnessed several corrections following SBV’s bill offerings. Interbank rates seemed bottom out with overnight and one-week tenors increasing by 15bps and 30bps compared to the end of the previous week, respectively. More relevantly, the interest rate for 1-month tenor halted the downturn and even popped up to 1.20% p.a. in some trading points. Similarly, the 10-year G-bond yield rose by 8bps with a 2-time-higher trading value, indicating a significant shift in the appetite of fixed-income investors. Notably, USDVND, the cause of recent SBV’s OMO practices as per our prediction, cooled down by 0.12% compared to last week. We predict the upward pressure on interbank rates to increase when SBV probably issues more bills.

Economic activities accelerated further in 3Q23 mainly thanks to the impressive improvement in export activities and the solid investment from foreign and government sectors. On the upside, it seems the negative impact of external factors on Vietnam's economy has become less severe when the end of the global trajectory of rate hikes was counting down. Export turnover recorded a much softer decline, and FDI disbursement preserved its acceleration. However, domestic consumption continued decelerating due to a slowing recovery in foreign tourism, the lingering hardship of employees in the manufacturing sector, and the limited impact of fiscal measures. For future developments, we expect the export activities to recover and overwhelmingly drive the economy to accelerate in the next quarter.