13
February
In January 2020, we saw opposite movements of short- and long-term interbank yields in the mix of temporary tightening signals from SBV and rising concerns related to coronavirus disease. Short-term interbank rates generally bounced back after hitting their lows in previous month as the SBV send temporary tightening signals by using 91-day T-bill offerings.
07
February
According to the GSO estimate, the total trade value fell sharply by 12.08% YoY to reach USD38.1bn in January 2020. In particular, the value of export declined by 13.93% YoY, posting USD19.0bn, while the import value also decreased by 10.16% YoY, recording USD19.1bn. Tet holiday in January 2020, which was not only long but also extended, was the probable reason for the plunge in trade activity.
15
January
SBV withdraws liquidity from banking system in December. SBV drained VND46.4trn from the banking system through repo channel as the central bank only offered VND60.8trn repo with 14-day maturity to partly absorb VND107.1trn of due repo contract. Also, there are no T-bill auctions held in this month.
07
January
Real GDP decelerates in 4Q2019. GSO estimates the real GDP in 4Q2019 to reach VND1,214trn, growing 6.97% YoY, 34 basic points (bps)-lower than the growth rate in 3Q2019. Cumulatively, 2019 real GDP grows 7.02% YoY, 22bps-higher than 6.8% target stated in the Government Resolution 01/NQ-CP 2019.
16
December
SBV injected VND133.2trn into banking system via OMO market, including VND84trn via T-bill, and VND49.2trn via repo channels. Interbank interest rate on most of maturities hiked after hitting the bottom level of 2019 except for 9-month rate.
10
December
According to GSO estimates, total trade value increased by 4.51% YoY to reach USD45.1bn in November 2019. In particular, the value of export increased by 3.77% YoY to USD22.6bn, while the import value rose by 4.52% YoY to achieve USD22.5bn. As a result, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD100mn in the trade balance.
25
November
Data from SBV shows a net injection of liquidity via OMO market in October 2019. Similar to the recent months, the central bank mostly used 7-day T-bill to put a tightening pressure on the liquidity of the market. However, transactions recorded a slowdown by the end of last month.
07
November
According to GSO, total trade value increased by 1.30% YoY to reach USD44.9bn in October 2019. In particular, the value of export declined 0.79% YoY to USD22.4bn while the import value increased 3.47%YoY to achieve USD22.5bn, resulting in a deficit of USD100mn in the trade balance. We estimate export to grow 13.78% YoY and import to grow 12.57% YoY in Nov 2019.
08
October
Vietnam real GDP in 3Q2019 was estimated to post VND957.1trn, growing 7.31% YoY and 58 basis point higher than that of the previous quarter. Industry and construction sector and services sector improved significantly while agriculture, forestry and fishery sector performed poorly.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
Tiếng Việt
普通话
