10
November
In Sep and Oct 2022, hydropower output surged 17% yoy thanks to La Nina effect. Coal-fired power volume dropped to 14.9bn kWh (-6% yoy) owing to surging global coal price (+105% yoy) and tight coal supply. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023F, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.
09
November
Based on the General Department of Customs, the prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment in October grew only 0.7% yoy and dropped 0.8% mom to USD2.7bn. In October 2022, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell -14% yoy, but lifted 3.6% mom, accounting for 37.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 10M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 21.5% yoy to nearly USD31.7bn.
09
November
The revenue growth rate of listed pangasius leaped 68% yoy while shrimp exporters inched 6.5% yoy. Meanwhile, the listed pangasius and shrimp exporters' revenue recorded 14.2% qoq and 5.7% qoq export decreases, especially the top tiers, which slowed down quickly after a significant bullish in 2Q22. Despite the upward trend of seafood exporters slowed down in 3Q22, we maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating since we believe that the seafood industry rally is persisting through 4Q22F backed by sound business conditions.
08
November
In Oct, according to the Customs, total fertilizer export volume was 160,219 tonnes (-16% mom, +60% yoy), equivalent to USD88mn (-19% mom, +109% yoy). Vietnam imported nearly 322,000 tonnes of fertilizer (+29% mom, +7% yoy), equivalent to USD154mn (+52% mom, +35% yoy). Based on data we collected, in Sep, urea accounted for about 34% of total fertilizer imported (about 86,000 tonnes), followed by NPK with 28% (about 69,000 tonnes).
07
November
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We continue to see the low demand in 4Q22F as bond and property industry issues and interest rate upward pressure for forex control purpose will hinder the consumption demand from end-use buyers.
04
November
The industry posted a VND10,899bn turnover (+12.7% yoy, +2.3% qoq) and VND827bn NPAT (+29.8% qoq, +13.1% qoq). Overall, the top five companies (VMD, DVN, DHG, CDP, and TRA) accounted for around 52% of the industry turnovers. Surrounded the giant rivals, DHG still maintained its leading position with the highest NPAT of VND262bn (+30.1% yoy, +12% qoq). DBD and OPC emerged as brisk players with GM expansion of 16.3%p/8.3%p yoy in 3Q22.
03
November
Based on our estimate, the fertilizer sector announced a VND28,491bn revenue (+47.1% yoy), and a VND4,188bn NPAT (+123.4% yoy) in 3Q22, mainly driven by the strong increase in selling prices. Nonetheless, with the fall in domestic selling and petite contribution from the export turnover, 3Q22 revenue/NPAT of the whole sector still lagged behind vs 2Q22 by 11.2%/24.7% qoq in 3Q22.
31
October
According to the GSO estimate, in Oct, the total agriculture export value is USD1,789mn (+17% mom, +19% yoy). In detail, rubber and vegetables have the highest export value of USD477mn (+56% mom, +45% yoy) and USD350mn (+40% mom, +59% yoy).
12
October
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Sept 22, we observed an improvement in domestic demand while export sales volume was still sluggish.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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