Research Center

Trading value continued to move in undemanding direction when average daily trading value (ADTV) in 3Q22 decreased to VND14,836bn (-27.7% QoQ, -44% YoY). In addition, new accounts in this quarter dropped significantly after historical high in 2Q22. In 3Q22, there were 451,284 new accounts (-61.6% QoQ, +33.8% YoY). In brokerage market share, VPS gained 1.61pts in 3Q22 and reached 18.71% HSX’s brokerage share, the highest market share within company history. There were 7 companies in Top 10 experiencing market share losses.

The export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment ended the upward trend in September as falling 31.9% mom (though up 18.6% yoy) to USD2.72bn. In September 2022, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) saw a decline of -10.2% yoy/-43.5% mom, accounting for 36.1% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 9M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 23.9% yoy to nearly USD29bn.

In Sep, total fertilizer export volume was 190,000 tonnes (+61% mom and +116% yoy), equivalent to USD108mn (+52% mom and +184% yoy). On average, the export price was about USD568/tonne (-6% mom but +32% yoy), equivalent to VND13.6mn/tonne. We estimate the gas input price in Sep was USD235/tonne, which fell by 13% vs Aug level.

According to the GSO estimate, in Sep, the total agriculture export value is USD1,526mn (-5% mom and -1% yoy). Except rice and cassava remain at the same level as the last month, most agriculture products record a decrease in export output. According to the Thai Post, Thailand and Vietnam could increase the export price by 20% compared to the current level. However, Vietnam Government has not yet confirmed it.

On Sep 28th, The Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV) announced 7M22 market figures. Total insurance premium in 7M22 was VND136,960bn (+15.5% yoy). In which, life insurance premiums increased by 15.8% to VND98,171bn; non-life insurance premiums also surged by 14.9% to VND38,789bn. Loss ratio for both life insurance and non-life insurance were up, especially for life insurance.

Decree 65/2022/ND-CP on amending and supplementing Decree 153/2020/ND-CP on private placement of corporate bonds was issued on September 16, 2022. With the aim to develop the corporate bond market in a sustainable and long-term direction, the changes in Decree 65 are expected to remove the tie towards the issuer as well as protect investors from the risk in bond investment.

In Aug, total fertilizer export volume was 117,973 tonnes (+5% mom and +81% yoy), equivalent to USD71mn (-5% mom and +173% yoy). In contrast, the export price declined by 10% mom to reach USD602/tonne. Vietnam imported 246,015 tonnes (+46% mom and -100% yoy) of fertilizer in Aug, equivalent to USD113mn (+69% mom and -99% you). We estimate the gas input price in Aug was USD270/tonne (-2% mom and +21% yoy). Until mid-Sep, the average gas price is USD241/tonne, down 11% vs the Aug level.

Hydropower output surged to 10.7 kWh in Aug (+30% yoy) thanks to favorable weather conditions. In 1H22, the mixed coal price supplied to domestic power plants had increased 30-35% yoy. We predict the coal price will keep its rising trend. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023, coupled with shrinking gas input price, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power, especially gas-fired power in 2023F.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During August 22, we observed an improvement in domestic sales volume while export sales volume was still weak.