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09
February
The industry posted a VND12,048bn revenue (+7.1% yoy, +5,7% qoq) and a VND842bn NPAT (+6.0% yoy, +13.5% qoq) in 4Q22. The 4Q22 aggregated blended gross margin (GM) was 25% (+2.1%p yoy, +0.1%p qoq), while the net margin (NM) nearly stayed the same as 4Q21 with 7.2% (+0.2%p yoy, -0.2%p qoq).
08
February
According to the GSO estimate, in Jan, the total agriculture export value was more than USD1.5bn (-10% mom, -8% yoy). Coffee brought the highest value of USD352mn (+12% mom, -5% yoy), and it accounted for 23% of total agriculture export turnover, followed by vegetables (19%) and rubber (17%).
08
February
We introduce a favorable 2023F-24F earnings forecast with net profit of VND774bn (+6.1% yoy) and VND838bn (+8.3% yoy), respectively due to (1) waning La Nina effect, (2) rising power consumption demand and (3) tight coal supply problems. Thus, we recommend BUY in response to sustainable earnings growth prospects and favorable dividend yield.
06
February
On Feb 6, we tuned in to IDC’s AM presentation briefing for the 4Q22 business result. Some key takeaway notes were largely centered on 2023F guidance on industrial park operation. IDC is trading at 5.7x TTM PE, significantly lower than 25x three-year average. We think the investors have yet gained confidence in the company’s sustainable earnings growth likelihood in 2023F though the company reassures the attendees by confirming its feasibility in achieving a higher yoy growth of both topline and bottom line.
06
February
Based on our estimate, the fertilizer industry announced a VND26,023bn revenue (-9% yoy, -2% qoq) and a VND3,883bn NPAT (-21% yoy, -8% qoq) in 4Q22. 4Q22 blended gross margin (GM) lowered by 3.4%p yoy to 25.7% in 4Q22 (+0.8%p qoq), while the net margin (NM) shrank to 15% (-1.5%p yoy, -0.7%p qoq), regardless the SG&A to sales narrowed by 1.1%p yoy to 9.3% (+1.9% qoq).
06
February
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We witnessed a collapse in aggregated gross margin (into negative territory in 4Q22), which mainly caused by the GM collapse of HPG. In 1Q23F, we expect to see the gross margin will improve in 1Q23F when the pressure from high-cost inventories have been away.
02
February
In 2022, TLG’s net revenue rose by 32% yoy to VND3.5tn. NPAT also grew 45% yoy to VND401bn. TLG fulfilled 108% of revenue guidance and 143% of NPAT guidance.
01
February
Becamex released the 4Q22 on Jan 31, featuring a VND879bn revenue (-71.7 yoy, -61.2% qoq) and a VND7bn NPAT (-97.9% yoy, -252.2% qoq). The core property segement impeded the whole picture with a VND233bn revenue (-91.1% yoy, -87.4% qoq) while the other segment grew sustainably. We attribute to the booking timing that resulted in the miss of pipeline. However, the valuation of 49.5x TTM is justified given the ineffective non-core businesses, and potential conflict of minority interest,in our view.
01
February
Vietnam Rubber Group released the 4Q22 on Jan 31, featuring a VND9,012.7bn revenue (-5.1 yoy, +54.1% qoq) and a VND1,310.9bn NPAT (-14% yoy, +31.9% qoq). The core rubbber production was double attacked by slower demand (revenue VND6,710, -9.8% yoy) and contracted gross margin (20.7%, -7.4%p yoy). However, the other segments (value-added rubber, industrial park operation, utility) fared well, revitalizing the whole GVR's 4Q22 result. Despite the bet on divestment plan being the new fuel engine of 2023-24F earnings growth, we feel that core business has yet been proactively improved. Furthermore, GVR's 11.2x TTM PE is not a real bargain if compared with other blue chips.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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