01
February
13
January
A sustained low-rate environment in the fixed-income markets continued to a greater extent as interbank rates and G-bond yields plunging further. However, phenomenal lending growth recently, and likely continue in the near term, will put massive upward pressure on the interbank rates and short-term yields in January.
08
January
With 4Q20 strong growth, 2021 outlook for Vietnam’s economy becomes even brighter. Supporting the export and FDI inflows, the COVID-19 vaccine distribution help normalize the global economic recovery. Additionally, massive fiscal packages continued a priority for governments to boost economic growth. Vietnam's government is also utilizing this tool to help nurture businesses for the longer-term. Last but not least, massive FTAs, including EVFTA and RCEP, would be an important factor to lift up Vietnam’s economy in 2021. For all those reasons, we predict the economic growth to reach 6.36% YoY in 2021.
29
December
22
December
In overall, the corporate bond market was quiet in Oct 2020. Issuing value dropped by 25% compared to Sep 2020. Accumulated 10M20, about VND357tn worth of corporate bonds were issued, up 26% YoY as well as corporate bond rate has increased slightly in 2020.
08
December
Excess liquidity in the banking system, due to a slowdown in bank lending, has been driving interbank rates and G-bond yields to historic low levels, of which some rates have stayed near-zero level for a long time. However, a surge in credit growth in November may give an early signal that liquidity conditions in the banking system would not as easing as before, which could reverse a super low-rate environment in the fixed-income markets.
04
December
November data showed that a worsening COVID-19 situation in the U.S. and Europe has again put downward pressure on export activity. For the domestic market, demand has remained strong with retail sales and import accelerating. However, the recent community-infection concerns us about the economic outlook in the near term. Hence, we predict that the economy will deviate from the acceleration rail to the extent that reversely related to how effectively the government controls the new COVID wave.
30
November
05
November
In October, interbank rates and bond yields continue to stay at historic lows as the current liquidity condition remains abundant. Looking forward to November, in the scenario that lending activity accelerates under the favorable seasonal effect in the fourth quarter, we expect interbank rates and G-bond yields to pick up from the bottom.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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