17
January
The long Tet holiday continues to impact on Vietnam stock market in Jan and Feb. However, the impact will end after the Tet. We expect the market to maintain its medium-term downtrend in 1H23. And then, the market will rebound since 2H23 thanks to (1) Good fundamentals and (2) attractive valuation. Specifically, the VNIndex will form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023 in the range of 780-910 points.
17
January
The downside risk is still intact in the short term due to cautious market sentiment. Besides, the long-tet holiday impacts the investors’ sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
17
January
Market ended up to be net sold, in which Financials was sold the most whilst Real Estate, Materials, and Consumer Staples attracted most of buying activity. With ETF flow across Vietnam, net inflow was USD53mn. The inflow was mainly lifted by the strong demand on VanEck and Diamond ETF.
16
January
Despite the third recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to cautious market sentiment. Besides, the long-tet holiday impacts on the investors’ sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
16
January
The VNIndex continues to move in the tight range due to the impact of the Tet holiday. Hence, traders should wait for the breakout or breakdown to confirm the next trend.
13
January
Despite the second recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to cautious market sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
12
January
In this quarterly review, the VN30Index is expected to add BCM and remove KDH. We expect the local ETFs, which use the VN30Index as a benchmark index, to buy MBB and HPG the most with 1.2 million shares and 1.0 million shares. On the sell side, KDH and ACB will be sold heavily with 2.9 million shares and 1.3 million shares.
12
January
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to cautious market sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
11
January
In the short term, the downside risk is still intact due to cautious market sentiment. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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