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14
November
On Nov 14, Mobile World held 3Q20 analyst meeting to update more information about business results. Of which, Mobile World’s revenue delivered VND8,700bn in Oct 2020, increasing 10% yoy and 4% mom, mainly premised by the positive contribution of Bach Hoa Xanh’s revenue.
11
November
In 4Q20, we are concerned that Vinamilk’s revenue will be negatively impacted by weakening demand in the Central and the decrease of export revenue to the U.S. amid Covid’s wider spread. However, the impact of yoy lower gross margin will be cushioned by the yoy improvement of SG&A ratio, which is expected to maintain Vinamilk’s NPAT growth driver in 4Q20.
11
November
We maintain BUY rating at higher target price of VND14,600 as we reduce the execution risk on three on-going projects including Opal Skyline, Opal Cityview, GSW, St Moritz as we have more information about the sales plans and witness the real interest from homebuyers which guarantee us presale forecast.
11
November
4Q20F net profit of VND618bn is secured driven by one-off VND612bn financial gains from a 35% equity stake transfer. FY21F net profit is estimated to grow by 34.6% yoy mainly backed by condo delivery in Akari project
06
November
On Nov 06, Vinamilk held 3Q20 online analyst meeting to update more details about Vinamilk’s business results. In 9M20, Vinamilk reached optimistic revenue growth of dairy products beneficial to human resistance. However, extending impact of pandemic in export markets and the Central flood can have negative impact on Vinamilk's domestic revenue in 4Q20.
04
November
Masan Group is ambitious to achieve 2021 NPAT of VND4,000-6,000bn, lead by the yoy earning growth of all business segments. VinCommerce targets to extend its trend of profit margin improvement thanks to (1) increasing the presence of products with high revenue and high profit margins, (2) promoting price promotion to increase VinCommerce’s price competition against its rivals and (3) achieving yoy widening EBITDA margin, driven by the closure of more than 400 stores in 2020.
04
November
TPB is pursuing a robust growth in order to upgrade its position in the industry. It’s 9M20 credit growth topped at 22.5% vs. 6.09% of the industry average thanks to corporate bond investment. However, huge restructured loans (~7.3% of loan book) may threat the bank’s assets quality in coming quarters
03
November
In 4Q20, we expect that Vinh Hoan will achieve better business results than our previous estimates, premised by (1) yoy growth of export price to the U.S. in 4Q20, (2) Collagen & Gelatin revenue to see qoq recovery in 4Q20 and (3) Vinh Hoan’s yoy gross margin improvement in 4Q20
03
November
We reaffirm BUY at lift TP by 13% to VND29,100 with major change in assumptions related to credit growth and credit cost in 2020-2021. As the pandemic worry has returned upon 2020-21 winter and EU recent lockdown, we incline to resilient banks like ACB.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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