16
April
On April 15, SZC held a 2021 AMG briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. Key issues covered were the FY21F guidance, fund demand for residential property development. Per management guidance, FY21F earnings translate into a forward P/E of 23.5x and P/B of 3x, expensive with the local peer median at 15x and 2.1x, respectively.
12
April
We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and TP of VND70,500, based on a 10% discount to our SOP valuation. PHR is firing on all cylinders, with a promising outlook of faster approval for VSIP3 while its rubber segment continues to expand steadily. Valuation is attractive, in our view, at 7.1X FY21F PE while providing a stable dividend yield of 6.7%.
12
April
We tuned in to broadcast KBC’s AGM on April 12 which briefs its stunning business plan to back to the golden times. In FY21F, KBC targets the highest record of profit after tax guidance to VND2tn, 573% yoy driven by the handover of industrial land bank and residential units mounting to VND6.6tn (3 times higher yoy). The company aims to monetize the 581ha land parcel Trang Cat townhouse project which has been idle since 2012 on the dream of reaping VND60tn gross development value.
09
April
On April 6th, we attended the TCM's 2021 AGM to to articulate the business plan in FY21F, and its results so far are encouraging.
01
April
In 2021, Masan Group (MSN) plans to reach VND92,000-102,000bn revenue (increasing 19-32% yoy) and VND2,550-4,000bn NPAT (increasing 83-187% yoy). Optimistic business guidance of Masan Group comes from brighter business results of all segments (Masan Consumer, Masan MEATLife, VinCommerce and Masan Resources).
31
March
On Mar 31, we attended AGG’s 2021 AGM, and the presentation was largely centered on the FY21F guidance, contract sale target, and share issuance plan. Per management guidance, FY21F earnings translate into a forward PE of 6.8x and PB of 1.6x, unwarranted with the local peer median of 14x and 2.1x, respectively. We think investors seem to have overreacted to the moderate land bank area of 43-53ha and neglect the solid growth outlook in FY21F-22F.
29
March
On Mar 27, PDR held a 2021 AMG briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. Key issues covered were the FY21F guidance, industrial estate development, and renewable energy strategy. Per management guidance, FY21F earnings translate into a forward P/E of 14.3x and P/B of 2.5x, on par with the local peer median at 14x and 2.1x, respectively.
16
March
ACB revealed its 2021 guidance with PBT target of VND10.6tn, up 10.5% yoy; credit growth of 9% and assets growth of 10%, meeting just 93%, 64% and 76% of our forecast respectively. We believe the above modest target is the result of the bank’s traditional conservative practice since it has not yet got the 2021’s credit growth quota from the SBV. Besides, cash dividend is not expected for 2020 and 2021.
09
March
We increase our RNAV-based target price to VND121,700 thanks to faster sales growth in Grand Park and Ocean Park projects. Industrial park segment is evaluated in timeframe of 10 years at the lease rate of USD90-95 per sq m p.a. We discount about 50% NAV of IP segment to reflect the execution risk and presales risk. However, we also reduce our discount rates applied to Can Gio and Green Ha Long projects from 85-75% to 80-70% as we have more information on the licensing process.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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