15
November
The October performance witnessed the current revival of domestic demand from low-base August. The domestic volume of steel coat recorded 20,975 tonnes (+42.8% mom, +22.9% yoy) while domestic steel pipe volume posted 13,932 tonnes (-20.5% yoy but +136.4% mom) amid the easing lockdown policy.
05
November
Key focus areas are presale growth and its funding demand. Since lockdown prolonged until Nov that impedes the sales events, NVL aims to sell 7,000 units in 2021F, reducing 30% vs the initial plan. More than 2,000 units sold in 4Q21 could bring around VND15tn-20tn contract sale value, according to the management. Net debt/equity as of end-3Q21 increased to 0.98x from 0.96x as of end-2Q21. NVL’s leve rage ratio, which is significantly higher than average for developers (0.2x-0.4x), remains unhealthy in our view.
01
November
We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on Nov 1 which features the strategical visibility on Vinfast and shares some lights on its 3Q21 operational updates. Vingroup reported its loss 3Q21 NPATMI at VND351bn in light of shrinking revenue growth of 16.2% yoy to VND30.1tn. Vinfast market share is the most prominent point in 3Q21 performance. Specifically, VinFast retained the number 1 position domestically with Fadil being the best-selling car model. Vinfast also rolled out more than 10k charging ports, covering 62/63 provinces and cities across Vietnam.
01
November
Khang Dien House Trading and Investment JSC’s (KDH) 3Q21 revenue reached VND1,199bn, -31.7% yoy and net profit posted VND316.6bn, -12.4% yoy. Overall, the 9Q21 performance was mixed with a -2.9% yoy total revenue growth to VND3.1tn and a 2.4% yoy net profit growth to VND788bn. We still keep our concern that buying sentiment would not be relaxed until 2022F given the transmission fear could postpone the sales events and deter the traffic for show flats.
31
October
Tien Phong Securities (ORS VN Equity) gets approval from the HSX to list on HSX. The first trading date on HSX will be on Nov 4th 2021, reference price is VND 28,300/share. Currently, ORS is trading at 16x TTM PE and 2.8x PB respectively, which are in line with the sector average (PE 17x and PB 3.0x). The 1-year return of ORS is advancing by 378%, beating the VNINDEX.
29
October
Vinhomes buoyed the morning trading session with the announcement of a vibrant VND11.1tn NPATMI, +84.3% yoy, 9.1% qoq, topping those listed in the Vietnamese equity market and marking the two consecutive earnings quarters of over VND10tn. Per management, three new mega townhouse projects, Wonder Park, Dream City, Coloa, are rescheduled to open for retail sale in 2022F instead of 2021. We are reviewing our presale forecasts to reflect the new landscape of VHM’s development pipeline.
29
October
This monthly report on Hoa Sen is intended to track the operational developments in the steel market. On Sep, HSG steel sale volume increased 20.3% mom (200,545 tonnes), bringing FY21 growth to 41% yoy (2,286,861 tonnes). The local demand revived from low base in August (43.8% mom).
26
October
On October 19, 2021, SCS announced its 3Q21 earnings results with revenue of VND172bn (+2.5% yoy) and PBT of VND130bn (+5.2% yoy). The high increase of average selling price (ASP) when ASP rose +22.5% yoy largely contributed to this gain. In the world, air cargo prices on all routes continuously increased to new highs of the year due to combined with strong consumer demand and strains capacity. We maintain BUY rating on SCS but upgrade our TP by 5.0% from VND152,600 to VND160,200.
22
October
In 3Q21, revenue from product handover was minimum, mainly due to social lockdown in Southern Vietnam which prevented Nam Long from handover Akari City, Southgate project as planned. However, NLG earned a VND361bn revaluation gain from the consolidation of Southgate JSC driven by receiving an additional 15% voting right to 65%. NLG price has far been beyond our target price driven by the better-than-expected net profit in 3Q21. We will adjust the revaluation gains in 3Q21 to reflect the true landscape of NLG’s earnings in 21F and review our target price
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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