![VHM – 2Q21 review [BUY +13.7%] Robust 2Q21 earnings as expected](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
30
July
Vinhomes reported an exciting 2Q21 controlling interest net profit spiked by 72.3% yoy and 89.6% qoq to VND10.2tn. The brisk profit stemmed from the combination of a soaring total revenue of 75.4% yoy to VND28.2tn and an expanding gross margin of 10.6%p yoy. VHM deserves the high conviction BUY rating. Our estimated TP stays unchanged at VND121,700.
22
July
We maintain our Add rating as presales of Akari, Mizuki, Waterfront, VSIP Quang Ninh and Waterpoint projects should be on track in FY21-22F. Key risk in our model is worse-than-expected COVID-19 which could dampen the homebuyers’ demand.
08
June
On June 2, US Department of Commerce (DOC) made preliminary conclusions on anti-dumping investigation into Polyester Textured yarn (PTY) products from Vietnam with dumping margin of between 2.67% and 22.82%. However, STK believes this action slightly hit its business.
28
May
Alibaba Group and Baring invested USD400mn, equivalent to 5.5% ownership of The CrownX as of end-April. CrownX aims to build LazMall e-commerce platform co-operated by Lazada Vietnam. Besides, MSN acquired 20% stake of Phuc Long Heritage in May and is eyeing building Phuc Long Kiosks (store in-store concept) inside VinMart+.
17
May
We revise up the presale value from VND13.5tn to VND15.4tn in FY21F and from VND16.7tn to VND23.2tn in FY22F to factor in the encouraging attributes 1) the average selling price (ASP) Mizuki condo project is around VND37-42m/ sq m in 2021 in tandem with the latest launch on April, 2) Dai Phuoc townhouse project could be developed in 4Q21F-1Q22F instead of being transferred to third party, and 3) Waterfront Izumi ASP could enjoy an excitement up to VND40-45m/ sqm.
11
May
ACB 1Q21 NP came at VND2.5tn, up 62% yoy despite of a skyrocketed in credit provision. This is driven by a 83% yoy advance in PPE. Following effectiveness of Cir.03, ACB expects to book ~VND300bn of extra provision on COVID-19 restructured loans. We lift 2021F NP by 10% to VND12.5tn, up 30.7% yoy and upgrade 12M TP to VND40,100. We expect healthy topline growth of 16-18% is able to offset extra provision and helps ACB to achieve NP growth of 17-30% in coming years.
10
May
Per management guidance, FY21F earnings correspond to a forward PE of 9.4x and PB of 1.8x, which seem unwarranted with the local peer median at 14x and 2.1x, respectively. The management note that the actual FY21F earnings could be achieved at 100-130% of the company estimate. Hence, this may be a stock worth watching in the second half of the year when the surprising net profit could be recorded.
05
May
We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on May 4. The presentation largely centered on its stunning 1Q21 results and upcoming strategic plan in FY21F. Despite some short-term headwinds, we believe that the growth prospect is still solid.
04
May
Khang Dien House Trading and Investment JSC’s (KDH) 1Q21 revenue reached VND836.5bn, +19.3% yoy. We estimate that around 20 units in the Verosa townhouse project and 300 units in Safira project were delivered in 1Q21. Gross margin (GM) in 1Q21 contracted by 5% pts yoy to 42.8%, due to the lower-margin contribution of Safira condo project. However, the financial expense dropped by 36.6% yoy as the lower Verosa units delivered in 1Q21 resulted in an immaterial payment discount expense.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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