05
January
Thai Nguyen International Hospital is listing on HSX bourse on 06 Jan 2020 with reference price at VND25,000/share, for opening date, translating into a TTM P/E of 10.1x and a forward FY21F P/E of 8.6x. We think such valuation is unwarranted to the average industry P/E of 10x given the TNH’s FY21F estimates of attractive net profit growth of 33.3% yoy, and promising ROE of 38.6%.
24
December
PVI Re will be listed on HNX exchange as ticker PRE from 24 Dec 2020 with reference price for opening date at VND20,000/share. Compared with VNR, PVI Re’s PB ratio is doubled at 1.7x. This valuation comes from its positive performance in recent years and their business strategy for following period 2021-2024. In 2019, PVI Re recorded revenue growth rate at 23% and NP growth rate at 12% while these number of VNR were 17% and 5%, respectively.
22
December
MSB debuts more than 1.17 billion shares with initial price of VND15,000 per share on 23 Dec on HoSE. The bank is expected to acquire higher profitability in 2021 onward given the following reasons: 1) gap growth earning by retrieving and provision of VAMC bonds ; 2) upfront fee by renewing bancassurance contracts, expected in 1Q21, and (3) divesting its consumer finance arm, FCCOM.
09
December
We upgrade to BUY following inclusion of FE Credit IPO at TP of VND 37,033. Since the third virus spread in Vietnam is contained promptly and we believe that all sides have been included COVID-19 variable into modeling, our base case assumption is that VPB is able to divest 49% stake of FE Credit at 3.00x PB in 2021.
04
December
We raise our target price (TP) for MSN share by 27% to VND94,000/share but downgrade to Hold from BUY as MSN share price has jumpt by 62% over the last two months. Our TP increase is driven by rolling price recommendation to the end of 2021 and the increase of our estimate for Masan Group’s 2021 NPAT post-MI on the back of higher earning forecasts for all four core business segments.
24
November
Despite weakening demand of ICTs and CEs, we expect that earnings protection efforts of The Gioi Di Dong & Dien May Xanh and effective expansion of Dien May Xanh Super-mini format, will support Mobile World to achieve positive yoy NPAT growth in 2020. Based on 3-Y average PE multiple of 13.0x, we evaluate MWG share value at VND155,000 per share. The total expected return is 39.7%, including 1.3% cash dividend yield. BUY.
23
November
We reaffirm BUY and lift TP by 15% to VND33,400. The new TP implies a forward P/B of 1.76x on 2021 earnings. We highly appreciate the bank’s efforts in fulfilling 2020 goals including financial guidance, exclusive banca agreement and its relisting on HSX.
16
November
Given resilient TCB’s CASA growth momentum, we raise NIM by 48bps for 2020F and 30-40bps for 2021-2024F. 2020F NP is forecast at VND11.5tn, increasing by 11% vs. latest update. We maintain BUY on TCB and raise TP to VND28,400.
16
November
We think the recent price rally have been reflected the fact NSHL IP is approved in Oct and there is no stronger price growth in months ahead. We downgrade to Hold as we are uncertain on the solid FDI recovery to Vietnam which compresses KBC’s business performance.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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