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10
September
On 09 Sep, Mobile World held a site visit tour to their new store format Dien May Xanh super-mini. The company targets to scale its super-mini up to 300 this year-end and record VND500bn. With super-mini format, Dien May Xanh targets to reach 60% domestic market share in 2022.
01
September
Vinh Hoan recorded VND629bn revenue in Jul 2020, decreasing 9% yoy, which were mainly hit by the decrease of export revenue to the U.S. (-16% yoy), China (-13% yoy) and rest of world excluding the U.S., EU, China (-20% yoy), due to the weakening demand of restaurant channel amid pandemic. However, Vinh Hoan’s export volume to the U.S showed sign of recovery as we estimate Vinh Hoan’s export volume to this market rebounded to Jul 2019’s level.
24
August
Mobile World recorded VND8,669bn revenue (-7% yoy) and VND326bn NPAT (+12.4% yoy) in Jul 2020. Mobile World’s net margin reached 3.8% in Jul 2020, rising 0.6%p yoy and 0.03%p mom, thanks to (1) efforts in upgrading store network, (2) operating expenses optimization, (3) larger revenue contribution of high-margin products (small appliances, watches) and (4) the yoy improvement of Bach Hoa Xanh’s post-spoilage gross margin.
19
August
In 2H20, we estimate Mobile World to record VND48,938bn revenue (-3.2% yoy) and VND1,552bn NPAT (-9.5% yoy), mostly driven by management board’s efforts to protect earnings of The Gioi Di Dong & Dien May Xanh and yoy widening profit margins of Bach Hoa Xanh.
17
August
We consider it positive toward action on selling 36% stake in Long Dien Group as its underlying cash supports DXG’ need for working capital. We maintain BUY rating and a RNAV-based target price of VND12,800 with 10-50% discounts applied to the fair value of each project based on the respective project’s execution period and land acquisition
14
August
We retain our BUY rating but raise a RNAV-based TP to VND93,500 to reflect the faster cash receipt from three bulk sale transactions. We think investors can do worse than accumulating VHM stock thanks to its leading and dominant position in the Vietnam market in both land bank and execution aspects.
12
August
We downgrade VPB to hold due to uncertainty of COVID-19. The return of virus in Vietnam amid peak summer holiday season may weaken domestic consumption in 2H20. As of June 2020, restructured COVID-19 loans accounted for 10.4% of the consolidated loan book.
11
August
We expect Masan Consumer surge to maintain earning growth pillar of Masan Group, premised by (1) revenue surge of premium products in modern trade channel, which saw revenue blossom in 1H20, (2) profit consolidation of Netsco and (3) profit margins expansion.
11
August
We think the KBC’s land presales target miss in FY20F is temporary as certain land demand is shifted to 2021F due to the expected delay in lifting of travel restrictions. We believe KBC is well positioned to capture the growing interest for industrial properties (IPs), triggered by a surge in supply relocation in Vietnam’s Northern region because KBC has several tech giants in its tenant portfolio.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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