![VCB – 4Q20 review [BUY +17.7%] Upgrade to BUY](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
05
February
Even though VCB 4Q20 TOI reached 97% of our forecast at VND14.4tn, the bank’s NP completed just 89% at VND5.7tn (+29% yoy and 42% qoq) due to a surprised move of credit cost at VND3.9tn, up 92% qoq and 61% vs. our forecast. This pushed NPL coverage ratio to peak at 370%. As we believe that VCB has been made full provision on COVID-19 distressed loans and respect the bank’s success in retail banking business, we upgrade to BUY.
04
February
In 4Q20, Vinamilk reached VND14,425bn revenue (+1.3% yoy), mainly thanks to revenue contribution of GTNFoods with VND682bn. Although EBIT decreased 14.1% yoy due to narrowing gross margin of Vinamilk domestic market and the increase of SG&A expense ratio, Vinamilk’s NPAT post-MI recorded VND2,185bn NPAT, dropping slightly 0.8% yoy, mainly thanks to 3.3x increase of financial income in 4Q20. In overall 2020, Vinamilk reached VND50,842bn revenue (+6.9% yoy) and VND11,099bn NPAT post-MI (+4.9% yoy).
02
February
Masan Group announced its draft 2021 actual plan, including 20-40% revenue growth, EBITDA margin of 15-20% and net margin of 3-5%. To fulfill revenue growth target, VinCommerce will focus on three pillars: (1) increasing the presence of fresh foods in both Vinmart+ and Vinmart, (2) focusing on the efficiency of sales department and operational department and (3) developing fresh food logistic by co-operating with independent partners.
02
February
On Jan 29, Masan Group released 4Q20 & 2020 business results with VND77,218bn consolidated revenue (+106.7% yoy) and VND1,395bn consolidated NPAT (-78.1% yoy) in 2020, backed by the earning pillars of Masan Consumer and Masan MEATLife while VinCommerce witnessed the improvement of profit margins.
01
February
We upgrade 2021 NP to VND10.3tn (+17% vs. 3Q20 review), up 24.3% yoy, given changes in key assumptions related to credit growth, credit cost and non-interest income in order to reflect 2020 outcomes and 2021’s initial guidance. We lift TP by 20% (from VND24,200) to VND29,150 and reaffirm BUY.
27
January
Over 25 years of operation, OCB’s branch network comprises one head office in Ho Chi Minh city and 133 branches/transaction offices nationwide (mainly operating in the South with 84 branches/transaction offices). OCB has always concentrated on developing technology platforms and serving a focus group of customers including upper mass in retail baking segment and SME, Micro SME in corporate banking segment. According to HSX, OCB’s listing day is January 28th, reference price will be VND22,900/share.
22
January
In 4Q20, Vinh Hoan posted nearly VND1,947bn revenue (-8.3% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by 21.4% yoy decrease and 11.2% yoy decrease of export revenue to the U.S. and China. Vinh Hoan’s 4Q20 NPAT posted VND153bn (-23.1% yoy) in 4Q20, mainly dragged down by yoy narrowing gross margin.
21
January
The insurance market kick-off 2021 year with the official announcement about listing schedule on HSX from Military Insurance Company (MIG). According to HSX, MIG’s listing day is January 21st, reference price will be VND 15,550/ share. In Vietnam non-life insurance market, MIG is standing at 6th position among Top 10 largest companies.
15
January
We attended online meeting held by VIC on Jan 14 where our emotion was overwhelming driven by the stunning strategy plans on their digital transformation, global Vinfast presence and One Mount Group mission. We think that those ambitious milestones could come closer no matter what the short and medium-term challenges are. We attribute that VIC is the only company in Vietnam with extensive presence across the consumer ecosysterm and with superior data analytics capabilities is the key driver.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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