![TCB – Company Note [BUY +20%] Capture new upturn phase](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
05
March
TCB 4Q20 NP beats our estimate by ~23% at VND3.95tn (+30.5% yoy and 28% qoq) given better-than-expected credit provision. For whole 2020, TCB earned a NP of VND12.3tn, up 22% yoy on a TOI of VND27tn, up 28% yoy. In the update, we lift our TP to VND47,000 and maintain BUY given more positive assumptions related to credit growth, assets quality, NIM and non –NII growth.
04
March
Established in 2008, Clever Group, is specializing in digital marketing industry, focusing on providing digital marketing solutions, developing marketing big data and AI technology, cross-nation B2B e-commerce solution, Social Listening solutions.
04
March
Vinh Hoan announced business results in Jan 2021, which delivered optimistic yoy revenue growth. Vinh Hoan reached VND632bn revenue in Jan 2021 (+31.0% yoy), which was mainly premised by export revenue surge to China (+180.0% yoy), Europe (+32.0% yoy) and rest of world excluding the U.S., EU, China (+48.0% yoy).
01
March
In 1Q21, we estimate Vinh Hoan’s NPAT will reach VND158bn (-13.2% yoy and -11.7% qoq), mainly hit by the fast qoq decrease of pangasius material price. In 2021, we estimate Vinh Hoan’s 2021 NPAT at VND823bn (+16.7% yoy) thanks to Collagen & Gelatin’s revenue surge and revenue contribution of Sa Giang, delivering higher estimated profit margins than those of fillet-related products. We maintain BUY with TP of VND47,000. Total expected return is 22%.
24
February
ACB 2020 NP came at VND7.7tn, up 28% yoy and beating our estimate by 11% thanks to better-than-expected credit cost and CIR. Despite of the rise of new cases in early this year, the Government once again proves its ability in containing virus without broad business disruption. We lift 2021F NP to VND9.1tn after trimming expected credit cost and CIR. The TP is adjusted upward to VND35,600 and maintain BUY.
17
February
We increase our RNAV-based target price to VND38,800 thanks to 1) rising GDV of those projects backed by increasing average selling prices of 25-30% 2) deteriorating COE to 10% from 13% due to the lower risk free rate. Key risks in our models are the complexity of COVID-19 outbreak that hurting the sale events of NLG’s projects; slowdown of economy recovery.
17
February
Our RNAV-based TP is 30.6% higher than BB consensus to VND37,500/share despite our lower exceeding FY21F-22F EPS forecasts by consensus of 2.1-4.8%. We increase KDH’s RNAV with the higher GDV of two upcoming landed projects Armena and Clarita and the contribution of Le Minh Xuan IP. We also reduced our COE and WACC due to the lower risk free rate of 10-year government bond.
09
February
For full-year 2020, SCS reported results with revenue reached VND693bn (-7.4% YoY) and net income was VND464bn (-7.6% YoY). Total cargo volume showed a slight dip, which was down 3.8%, in which international cargo is contrary to domestic cargo (international: -7.1% YoY but domestic: +6.7% YoY). By applying a pure 5-year DCF method to value SCS with WACC and Terminal growth at 12.8% and 3.0%, we reiterate our BUY rating for SCS and we lift TP to VND152,600 with a strong 2021 outlook.
05
February
Insurance revenue growth rate was not in tandem with the increasing velocity of insurance operating expense, it made the net loss from insurance operation leap to VND5,969bn (+39.4% yoy) in FY2020. However, BVH achieved splendid financial profit by 1) improving financial income to VND9,496bn (+20.6% yoy) and 2) cutting financial expense to VND1,754bn (-19.7% yoy). As of the end of 2020, they were successfully above the target with net profit as VND1,604bn, completed 160% of 2020 goal.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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