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On Feb 17, we tuned in to the AM of BCG to be covered with their 2022 recap related to business results and operation climate. What we felt relived is the enhancement of balance sheet with a debt/equity ratio plunging to 1.1x as of end-4Q22 and less pressure of due bond payment in the short term. However, we still stay skeptical on their escalating debt, potential dilution risk, and ample sensitivity to the hospitality property market where the majority of BCG’s projects are tourism/resorts.

Accumulating 2022, MWG’s net revenue went up by 8% yoy to VND133tn, MWG had met 95% of the revenue guidance. In 2023F, TGDD&DMX keep being the cash cow, contributing 75%-80% of MWG’s revenue, BHX is expected to contribute 20%-25% of MWG’s revenue. MWG will restrict operation of AVASports and Bluetronics due to low potential to focus on other key business in 2023.

Total Jan steel sales volume posted 85,232 tonnes, dropping by 40.9% yoy and 27.6% mom amid long Tet holiday. The coated steel export volume (29,304 tonnes) was down significantly by 62.6% yoy and 36.4% mom.

Total Jan steel sales volume posted 43,370 tonnes, falling by 34.6% mom and 53.8% you amid long Tet holiday. The coated steel export volume (20,513 tonnes) stumbled 69.7% yoy and decreased by 25.6% mom.

On Feb 10, 2023 Novaland held a meeting which gave the audience a walkthrough of the its restricting plan and cash flow. - The company did not hint a glimpse of relief about its due debt payment source but reassures us about its on progress restricting plan. To save money, NVL even procrastinates the interest subsidy program in those current projects and promises to pay back when signing the official contract.

SAB recorded a solid revenue of VND10.0tn revenue (+11.4% yoy, +16.1% yoy) due to high demand due to football events such as AFF, World Cup, and the early Lunar new year holiday, and NPAT-MI of VND1.0tn (-20.3% yoy, -22.3 qoq) owing to a sharp increase of selling expenses. For 2022, SAB revenue and NPAT-MI increased by 33% yoy and 42% yoy to VND35.2tn and VND5.2tn, respectively, fulfilling 101%/113% of guidance.

VNM lost domestic market share in 2022 due to restructuring GM (General Trade vs 85% revenue) and MT (Modern Trade vs 15% revenue). Domestic sell-in dropped yoy owing to distribution channel duplication, while domestic sell-out has increased 3-5% yoy in 2022. Although management viewed a conservative outlook for consumer spending, they expect VNM to get positive sales growth in 2023F.

In 4Q22, Vinh Hoan posted VND2,484bn revenue (-7.8% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by -25.9% yoy and -61.1% yoy decrease of export revenue to US and China. Whilst, Vinh Hoan’s 4Q22 NPAT posted VND199.6bn (-56.7% yoy), plunged by lower gross margin due to the flattening at hefty raw material amid the strong tumble selling price.

We introduce a favorable 2023F-24F earnings forecast with net profit of VND774bn (+6.1% yoy) and VND838bn (+8.3% yoy), respectively due to (1) waning La Nina effect, (2) rising power consumption demand and (3) tight coal supply problems. Thus, we recommend BUY in response to sustainable earnings growth prospects and favorable dividend yield.