![VNM – Earnings Review – [HOLD] – 4Q22 GM has not improved yet as expected](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
31
January
VNM posted its revenue decreased 4.7% yoy to VND15,069bn in 4Q22P owing to sluggish export markets, the gross margin squeezed continuously by 0.7%p qoq and 3.7%p yoy to 38.8% in 4Q22 owing to the high prices of imported milk powder prices in 2022. Thus, the NPAT-MI was VND1,869bn (-14.9% yoy) and VND8,578bn (-19% yoy) in 4Q22 and 2022, respectively.
31
January
NVL released its 4Q22 result with a eanings slump of VND239.1bn,- 70.7% yoy in 4Q22, promting to a full-year NPAT of VND2,255bn, -30.2% yoy. Beside, the negative CFO of VND3,262bn amid the due bond payment of VND18.4tn in next 12 months heightens the fear of default risk. However, the recently sharp dip in NVL price could trigger the bottom fishing strategy from those retail investors. But we do not consider it effective given the earnings erosion and default risk have yet to be priced in.
31
January
DCM’s 4Q22 revenue upped 14% yoy to VND4,458bn (+35% qoq) but NPAT downed 8% yoy to VND1,004bn (+37% qoq), above 146%/269% our 4Q22F estimation. In 2022, DCM posted VND15,924bn revenue (+61% yoy) and VND4,280bn NPAT (+134% yoy). The 2022 results fulfilled 110%/117% of our revenue/NPAT forecasts.
31
January
In 4Q22, MSN posted VND20,643bn consolidated revenue, -13.4% yoy due to the absences of MML’s feed business contribution, and VND447bn NPAT post-MI, -93.1% yoy since 4Q21 high base recording one-of financial income gains from deconsolidation of feed business. In 2022, MSN reached VND76,189bn revenue (-14% yoy), VND3,567bn NPAT Post-MI (-58.3% yoy), fulfilling 80%/61% of 2022 guidance, while 2022 EBITDA margin reached 18.9% (vs 18.5% in 2021)
30
January
VHM released its 4Q22 result with a VND8.9tn net profit, -25.2% yoy, -38.4%. prompting to a full-year net profit of VND28.8tn, -26.4% yoy. The results seemed tepid outside but solid inside given the fulfillment of 96.3% of VHM's 2022 net profit guidance. The 2022 presale growth target trailed the estimate and remains steady in the 2023F thanks to bulksale strategy.
30
January
HPG’ revenue decreased 42.2% yoy to VND25,825bn in 4Q22 driven mainly by steel segment. The 4Q22 NPAT-MI posted a loss of VND1,991bn. The 12M22 results fulfil 102%/80% our Revenue/NPAT-MI forecasts.
30
January
HSG’ revenue decreased significantly 53.2% yoy to VND7,917bn in 1QFY23 driven mainly by the weak global demand. In which, the total export volume in 1QFY23 dropped to 138,923 tonnes, -60.6% yoy, +47.0% qoq. The 1QFY23 NPAT-MI posted a loss of VND680.2bn.
30
January
PDR released its 4Q22 result with a PBT loss of VND296.6bn vs a PBT income of VND947bn in 4Q21. The 4Q22 income statement looked dim but the 4Q22 balance sheet seemed shinny given the net debt shrunk by 19.5% to VND4.1bn as of end-4Q22 vs VND5.2tn as of end-3Q22. However, we are much weighed by fear of sluggish market sentiment of retail equity investors who could dip the PDR price down more, triggering the bondholders to acquire more collateral or ask for buying back.
30
January
DXG released its 4Q22 result with a PBT loss of VND424bn vs a PBT income of VND361bn in 4Q21. The loss seems extraordinary but likely given the expected revenue sluggishness foreseen in 3Q22. Actually, DXG introduces a VND984bn revenue featuring -21.6% qoq and -56.6% yoy in 4Q22 due to the miss of the launch of Gem Riverside and the deliver of Opal Skyline.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
Tiếng Việt
普通话
