Research Center

PET revenue in 2022F inched by 2.3% yoy to VND18tn (fulfilling 90% of full-year guidance). PET’s Nov performance tumbled 27% yoy to VND1.5tn net revenue driven by the decline of distribution revenue by 31% yoy. PET’s revenue in Nov 2022 decreased by 10% mom, attributed to the drop in laptop & IT devices sale by 45% mom, due to peak sales in Oct to avoid the impact of forex rising. PET is facing tumbling demand and supply on ICT products in 4Q22 and 2023F. In 2023F, PET will prioritize improving PBT and keeping the stable cash flow for the core business operation.

In November, TCM posted decent business results with revenue of USD13.9mn (+8.4% yoy, +2.3% mom) and NPAT of USD0.8mn (+470% yoy, +0% mom mainly thanks to better cost management and savings on Covid-related expenses compared to November 2021). Overall, in 11M22, the company achieved USD170.3mn (+23% yoy) in revenue and USD10.6mn (+108% yoy) in NPAT, fulfilling 96% and 99% of its 2022F guidance, respectively.

TNG posted a positive November performance with revenue of VND507bn (+16% yoy) and NPAT remained unchanged at VND20.7bn. Overall, in 11M22, the company achieved a VND6,336bn revenue (+27% yoy) and a VND277bn NPAT (+29% yoy), fulfilling 106% and 99% of its 2022F guidance, respectively. We expect TNG to finish 2022 successfully with revenue and NPAT respectively fulfill 114% and 106% full-year guidance.

We witnessed the bounce-back of construction steel sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 509,767 tonnes, decreasing by 13.7% yoy and 9.4% mom, which caused by weak domestic and global demand.

We witnessed an improvement in sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 66,089 tonnes, falling by 34.9% yoy but increasing 31.3% mom.

We witnessed the slight improvement in sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 113,543 tonnes, dropping by 40.4% yoy but slightly increasing by 4.4% mom.

We revise up 2022F revenue and NPAT to VN13,900bn and VND2,290bn, +2.6% /27.3% compared to our previous estimates assisted by the surge of pangasius export in seasonal demand in most markets. Yet, We adjust downward 2023F revenue/NPAT estimates by -18.8%/-9.5%, to reflect the softer pangasius revenue growth arising from weaker demand and high inventory in key markets. As such, We downgrade our Rating from BUY to HOLD in response to an expensive cost of capital and weaker earning business.

As we see many headwinds over short-term for steel industry and the company, we maintain the HOLD rating for HPG stock. As we see HPG has been stepping in an extreme condition, like an arrow at full draw, any improvement in the situation will be more likely to push the company moves toward its new height.

On Dec 12, we tuned in to DBD’s AM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. The company expects 2022F’s revenue/NPAT could be above VND1,450bn (-7% yoy) and VND250bn (+32% yoy) which are mixed with AGM targets of a VND1,700 revenue and a VND171bn NPAT. DBD expects the EU-GMP factory could be approved in 2025F, which will help the company to achieve a VND3,000bn revenue in 2025F.