11
May
Daily derivatives: Approaching the selling zone
Traders should stay on the sidelines in order to avoid false trading signals.
11
May
Traders should stay on the sidelines in order to avoid false trading signals.
11
May
The VNIndex maintained its uptrend, which is a positive sign for the market. However, the risk is still there and therefore, investors should still carefully consider their investment decisions.
10
May
According to Customs, in Apr, total fertilizer export volume was 131,913 tonnes (-11.5% yoy, +4.2% mom), equivalent to USD48mn (-52.9% yoy, -12.7% mom). Total urea/NPK production in Apr was 153,200/385,500 tonnes (-22.7%/+47.5% yoy, -27.3%/+22.7% mom), respectively. Overall, Apr fertilizer production was 654,200 tonnes (+7.2% mom). +13.1% yoy). The Apr urea domestic market price was trading at around VND9,500/kg (-1.0% mom, -45.7% yoy and -22% YTD).
10
May
Breweries dragged down F&B’s revenue growth in 1Q23. The beer revenue went down yoy and qoq due to tighten alcohol testing in traffic and weak purchasing power amid an economic slowdown. We expect the consumption of beer and dairy will continue to face the challenge in the 2Q23F However, we expect the gross margins of listed dairy and beer companies to improve continuously qoq in 2Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices.
10
May
This quarterly earnings report on the Vietnam cement industry is intended to track the earning growth trend in the cement market. We witnessed a slump in earnings in 1Q23. High-cost input was mainly attributed to the negative aggregated profit. We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 2Q23F as construction activities are expected to be impacted by recent economic issues. As for export, we see the q-o-q improvement in the main export market – China, however, not significant. Companies' margins are expected to improve in 2Q23F thanks to lower input cost.
10
May
Apr export value growth of Vietnam’s T&G downed slightly by 3.3% mom but plunged sharply by 19.4% yoy. Hence, the 4M23 T&G export value remarkably descended (USD9.7bn, -17.9% yoy). Vietnam’s fiber and yarn (F&Y) export value also slid 26.8% yoy and -5.2% mom to USD356mn in Apr. Despite the the export value turnaround in Mar (total industry export growth of +14.5% mom), the export revenue of most listed companies diverged in Mar: (VGG -3.2% mom, -20.2% yoy), (GIL -2.4% mom, -93% yoy), vs (TNG +27.2% mom, +23.5% yoy).
10
May
Traders should stay on the sidelines in order to avoid false trading signals.
10
May
The VNIndex is still above the threshold of 1,050 points, but the risk is still present. Investors need to be more careful with their investment decisions.
09
May
We tuned in to HDB’s analyst meeting on May 9 which featured the strategical visibility on the group and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. HDB’s 1Q23 consolidate net profit slightly increased to VND2,194 (+8.6%YoY). 1Q23 Consolidated NPL slightly edged up to 1.8% (1Q22: 1.6% and 4Q22: 1.7%). However, the NPL was still below the 2023 target of 2%. 1Q23 consolidated NIM was 5.1%, lower than 4Q22’s 5.2% but higher than 1Q22’s 4.8%.
09
May
This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped-up note of listed Vietnamese textile producers based on their financial statements. In line with 4Q22, the 1Q23 revenue growth of listed garment companies continuously declined 22.8% yoy and earnings growth dropped further by -71.4% yoy 1Q23. Inventory levels at major foreign retailers like Nike and Adidas have increased since 2H22, which together with slow consumption led to a decrease in orders. That high inventories will unlikely to solve in 2Q23F and the recovery in the orders is hard to happen.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.