Research Center

Long VN30F2306 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level (Hourly chart).

The market slowed down but increased liquidity and the VNIndex closes above the 50-period moving average showing that this is not necessarily a bad signal. Accordingly, more signals are still needed to confirm the market's trend. Therefore, investors should still carefully consider their investment decisions.

The VNIndex shows cautiousness due to a rectangle pattern. The index needs a breakout or a breakdown to confirm the next trend.

We joined VCB’s analyst meeting on May 19 which featured the strategical visibility on the bank and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. VCB released its results with PBT up 12.8% yoy to VND11,221bn, derived from strong top-line growth (+10.7% yoy) and low provision expenses (-11.1%yoy). A significant increase in OPEX (+17.0% yoy) was the key dampening factor. VCB is trading at PB of 3.1x, 209% premium over private peers’ average of 1.49x and lower than the five-year average of 4x.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam banking is intended to track the earning growth based on financial statements. The 1Q23 recorded some anomalies when aggregated NPAT of the listed 27 banks was almost unchanged at -4.4%yoy in 1Q23 vs +17.9%yoy in 4Q22 and +31%yoy in 1Q22. Most of the banks saw 1Q23 credit growth slowness and corporate bond balance slump. There are no clear signals for strong credit demand recovery amid the economic downtrend. However, 2Q23 NIM will slightly improve qoq thanks to a decrease in funding cost in 2Q23.

4M23 preliminary revenue posted VND3,116bn (-36.1% yoy), backed by (1) high base in 4M22, and (2) the tumble revenue of most products yoy and qoq, especially pangasius. 4M23 revenue fulfill 26% our estimates. We maintain a HOLD rating

Long VN30F2306 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level (Hourly chart).

Although the VNIndex rebounds, the market sentiment has become cautious in the short term due to selling pressure around 1,100 pts. Therefore, investors should be careful and keep their stock positions at a safe level.

We tuned in to CTG’s analyst meeting on May 18 which featured the strategical visibility on the group and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. Total credit risk provision cost could fall by 34.5-50% yoy (VND12,000-15,000bn) in 2023, per management. However, CTG has yet provide the PBT guidance since they must obtain approval from SVB based on 2023 AGM. The management eyes NPL to be below 1.8% as of end-2023.

The global condition has exerted pressure on the stock market in the short term because (1) companies have faced difficulties in 1Q23 and (2) the corporate bond market poses future financial pressure. We expect two scenarios may unfold. Firstly, in the bullish scenario, the VNIndex can reach 1,220 pts in 2H23. Secondly, the bearish scenario suggests the VNIndex retest the zone of 780-910 pts.