Research Center

VN30F2305 is expired on this trading day which means new positions should be stalked on the upcoming contract (VN30F2306).

Although the market decreased, the liquidity increased and the VNIndex still closes above the threshold of 1,050. That is not bad signals. Therefore, investors should stay on sidelines and observe the next movements of the market.

In the agriculture sector, revenue edged up by 7% yoy to VND18.7tn, mainly contributed by the surging revenue of crop producers by 21% yoy, covering 20% yoy revenue slump of feeding companies. We expect that falling feed supply prices amid demand increase thanks to the long holiday (30/4-1/5) will help retrieve the pork and poultry price in 2Q23. However, the expenses of utilities and interest expenses could remain at a high level in 2Q23.

Long VN30F2305 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level (Hourly chart).

Slowing down the market and decreasing liquidity are not necessarily bad signals. Accordingly, more signals are still needed to confirm the market's trend. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.

The liquidity condition generally improves after the holiday with lower interest rates for short-term loans and increased traded value, and G-bond yields tend to reduce for first and second markets. The development in the money market continues to reflect the government’s efforts in promoting credit activities to support domestic enterprises after the economy experienced a depressed performance in the first quarter. Furthermore, USDVND remains stable in the late phase of the Fed's rate hike, providing Vietnam’s monetary authority more confidence to follow easing decisions.

Total Apr steel sales volume posted 77,269 tonnes, decreasing 7.6% mom and 17.0% yoy. The 4M23 total sales volume came in at 271,967 tonnes, -22.4% yoy. In which, the steel coat volume declined 24.6% yoy to 221,091 tonnes and the steel pipes volume was down by 11.0% yoy to 50,870 tonnes.

Total Apr steel sales volume posted 129,992 tonnes, dropping by 25.8% yoy but increasing 21.5% mom. The FY7M23 (Oct 2023-Feb 2023) total sale decreased 38.0% yoy to 764,474 tonnes as steel pipes volume declined 24.5% yoy to 162,258 tonnes and steel coat fell 40.8% yoy to 602,216 tonnes.

The liquidity increased and the VNIndex still closes above the threshold of 1,050, showing good signals. However, the downside risk is still there. Therefore, investors should be cautious and keep their stock positions at a safe level.

Long VN30F2305 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level (Hourly chart).