![VNM – 3Q20 review [Hold] Favorable SG&A ratio to drive 4Q20 NPAT](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
11
November
In 4Q20, we are concerned that Vinamilk’s revenue will be negatively impacted by weakening demand in the Central and the decrease of export revenue to the U.S. amid Covid’s wider spread. However, the impact of yoy lower gross margin will be cushioned by the yoy improvement of SG&A ratio, which is expected to maintain Vinamilk’s NPAT growth driver in 4Q20.
11
November
Long positions captured at 914 pts zone should not be closed, take a profit at 950 pts and out the positions when 900 pts level is broken.
11
November
The short-term uptrend confirms as the VNIndex closes above the significant moving average. Thus, investors should focus on leading stocks and increase the proportion when a short-term correction or consolidation phase occurs.
11
November
We could see a better quarter on quarter in 4Q20F new supply as the developers are under pressure to ramp up sales to meet the full-year target. However, the accelerating launches in 4Q20F still suffer a drop by 10-30% yoy as the second COVID wave in Aug discouraged the marketing plan which were kicked off to bolster sale events in 4Q20F. Despite the new supply slumps on yoy base in 4Q20F, we are upbeat on 4Q20F earning growth of 35-40% yoy leading by VHM, DXG thanks to tens of thousands of units delivered in 4Q20F.
11
November
We maintain BUY rating at higher target price of VND14,600 as we reduce the execution risk on three on-going projects including Opal Skyline, Opal Cityview, GSW, St Moritz as we have more information about the sales plans and witness the real interest from homebuyers which guarantee us presale forecast.
11
November
4Q20F net profit of VND618bn is secured driven by one-off VND612bn financial gains from a 35% equity stake transfer. FY21F net profit is estimated to grow by 34.6% yoy mainly backed by condo delivery in Akari project
10
November
Long positions captured at 914 pts zone should not be closed, take a profit at 950 pts and out the positions when 900 pts level is broken.
10
November
Despite the negative reaction at October’s peak, the upward trending market has already taken place. Thus, investors should focus on leading stocks and increase the proportion when short-term correction or consolidation phase occurs.
09
November
Market sentiment has became optimistic as well as the upward resumption phase is already confirmed. Thus, investors should focus on leading stocks and increase the proportion when short-term correction or consolidation phase occurs.
09
November
Long positions captured at 914 pts zone should not be closed, take a profit at 950 pts and out the positions at the break-even point (915 pts).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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