16
March
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Feb 2022 Vietnam steel production increased 2% mom to 2.41mn tonnes. During Feb 22, we observed the revival of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday.
16
March
Although there is the intraday rebound, the trend is still downward. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and new short position should be opened later.
16
March
In the short term, the downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex confirms the head and shoulders pattern. That means the target price may be around the 1,350-pts zone. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.
16
March
Based on data as of 15 Mar 2022, we expect that foreign ETFs will sell VRE, MSN, and HPG the most with 4.2 million, 3.6 million and 3.4 million shares. On the buy-side, VND, STB, and VIC will be bought heavily with 10.0 million shares, 9.5 million shares, and 5.2 million shares.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
15
March
Last week, the covered warrant market dropped. Trading volume also declined. Notably, demand starts to drop whilst supply remains at high level.
15
March
The VNIndex confirms the head and shoulders pattern as closing below the neckline. That means the target price may be around the 1,350-pts zone. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.
15
March
Although there is the downtrend, traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and new short position should be opened when there is the rebound phase.
14
March
Foreign selling pressure ticked up. Selling activity focused on Real Estate, Materials, and Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, outflow surged, driven by the strong divestment across on VFMVN30 ETF, VanEck, and VFMVN Diamond.
14
March
Although there is the downtrend, traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and new short position should be opened when there is the rebound phase.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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