Tiếng Việt
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01
March
Fundflow 21-25 Feb: Unstable flow
Foreign selling overwhelmed. Selling activity focused on Financials and Materials. With ETF flow, Vietnam was divested last week, mainly driven by the outflow on VFMVN30 ETF.
Research Center
28
February
Seafood – Sector Brief – January seafood export updates
In January 2022, seafood export recorded USD872mn of value (+44% yoy, -7% mom), mainly based on the low base of 2020 as 2021 Lunar new year was in January, making 10-day suspension of operation activities. Of which, US market increased Vietnam seafood export with USD199.8mn value (+84% yoy. +14% mom) backed by surging all leading products.
28
February
Pharmaceutical – Sector note – Demand bounce back in 1Q22F
Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 22 listed pharmaceutical companies fell by 25.2% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI slightly inched up by 6.7% yoy. We believe there will be plenty of room for growth for the pharmaceutical sector in 1Q22F mainly due to (1) revenue through ETC increases when the filed hospitals take back their capacity; (2) demand is rising as people tend to store medicine in order to prevent Omicron variant and deal with “post” COVID diseases; (3) opportunity is coming from franchising the COVID-19 treatment drugs production progress.
28
February
SSI – Note – 4Q21 Earning: Great way to close the year
4Q21 business result of the company recorded the highest numbers in many aspects. Total revenue was VND2,423bn (+38.6% qoq) and PAT was VND 998bn (+46.2% qoq). In 2021, there were 3 consecutive quarters started from 2Q21 that the company broke its high record in terms of revenue and profit. Brokerage revenue was pegged high due to 1) superior liquidity in the last quarter of 2021 and 2) the company’s effort in grasping brokerage market share. The margin loan balance at the end-Dec 2021 of SSI was VND22.7tn (+25.6% qoq), a significant increase in percentage and absolute number. The margin ratio was up by 10% to 160%. Currently, SSI is trading at price VND46,000, PE 16.4x and PB 3.1x.
28
February
Market commentary: Retest 1,500-pts threshold
Despite the recovery, the VNIndex still closed below the 1,500-pts threshold, implying the downside risk. Therefore, traders should be careful and stay on the sidelines until the next bullish signals.
28
February
Daily derivatives: Market is on the fence
Long position on VN30F2203 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,500 pts level (Hourly chart).
28
February
Chart of the day: Move around 1,500-pts threshold
Traders should be careful and wait for the next signal in this situation. Besides, they should reduce long positions and stay on the sidelines.
25
February
Seafood – Sector Note – Solid demand in 1Q22F
In 4Q21, 24 top listed seafood exporters reached VND13,862bn (-2.2% yoy) in 4Q21. Of which, revenue of listed pangasius exporters surged by +7.6% yoy in 4Q21 and revenue of listed shrimp exporter decreased by -12.4% yoy, mainly by the deceleration of MPC 4Q21 performance, accounting for largest revenue contribution in listed exporters with 21%, by VND2,931bn (-32.7% yoy).
25
February
Fertilizer – Sector brief – January fertilizer production
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in Jan, fertilizer export volume rose significantly to reach 370,000 tonnes (+192% yoy and +147% mom), while the export value grew strongly to USD299mn (+682% yoy and +172% mom), mainly due to the increase in global selling prices. On average, the export price was USD808/tonne (+170 yoy and +10% mom) in Jan.
25
February
Daily derivatives: Volatile
Long position on VN30F2203 should continue to be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,500 pts level.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.