20
March
Although there is the correction phase, the medium-term trend (uptrend) still remains. In this case, investors should reduce the current positions on leading stocks and wait for the valid signal (the range breakout or breakdown).
18
March
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group to EVN's 14 coal-fired power plants in February were only equivalent to 69.24% of the predetermined contracted volume and much lower than their operation demand. As we contacted with TKV, they asserted that TKV still supplied enough coal for power production in 2M22. TKV will mobilize labors to ensure coal supply of 150,000 tonnes/day.
18
March
In the short term, the VNIndex has retested the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, implying the downside risk. The target price of the pattern may be around the 1,350-pts zone. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.
18
March
Although there is the downtrend, but rebound phase is still active. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and repair to open short positions which would occur after the rebound phase.
17
March
According to the MoIT, fertilizer export volume in Feb fell dramatically to 50,000 tonnes (-86% mom and -44% yoy), leading the export value down to USD26mn ( -91% mom and -7% yoy). On average, the export price was USD520/tonne (+67 yoy and -36% mom) in Feb. We believe that the reason for the cutting down export volume mainly comes from Government’s effort in stabilizing domestic fertilizer prices and stockpiling fertilizer to ensure supply for the upcoming Summer-Autumn crop.
17
March
The February performance witnessed the surprising comeback of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 60,140 tonnes (+41.1% mom, +150.7% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 43,588 tonnes (+97.7% mom and +88.7% yoy).
17
March
The VNIndex has retested the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. However, the downside risk is still intact as the target price of the pattern may be around the 1,350-pts zone. Therefore, traders should still be careful and stay on the sidelines.
17
March
Rebound phase steps in, but the downtrend is still active. Traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and repair to open short positions on the upcoming contract.
16
March
MWG officially enters into a joint venture partnership with PT Erafone Artha Retailindo (“Erafone”), a subsidiary of Erajaya Group (ERAA) in Indonesia, through the signing of a Joint Venture Agreement to form a joint venture company PT Era Blue Elektronic (“Era Blue”). We believe that this collaboration is highly expected which envisages a new strategy of growth to MWG amid a saturation of the electronics and ICT retail segment in Vietnam. Given the higher MWG margins, we believe the addition of this business line will be positive for ERAA’s long-term growth.
16
March
The February performance witnessed the surprising comeback of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday. Domestic volume of steel coat recorded 20,524 tonnes (+40.4% mom, +110.4% yoy) and steel pipes volume posted 15,380 tonnes (+32.9% mom and +31.9% yoy).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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