05
September
The stock market increases strongly during the session with improved liquidity, indicating investors' sentiment become more optimistic. Furthermore, the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average. However, this is not a reliable buying signal as despite the improvement, the liquidity is still at a normal level. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
05
September
In this scenario, investors could open the long positions on leading stocks. However, margin trading needs to be avoided due to the respected 1,240 pts zone.
31
August
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period. The bullish move would come back only when 1,240 pts zone is broken.
31
August
Inflow across the market intensifies in the afternoon, causing the market to rise significantly during the session. The next time, if the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average with high liquidity, the bullish trend can come back and investors can open again long positions. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
30
August
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period. The bullish move would come back only when 1,240 pts zone is broken.
30
August
The stock market slows down after a sharp rising session with improved liquidity, indicating investors’ hesitation sentiment. In the next time, if the VNIndex successfully surpasses the 20-period moving average with high liquidity, the bullish trend can come back. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
29
August
August’s data shows an opposite tendency between internal and external factors. On one hand, the impact of recent fiscal measures, such as the VAT reduction and the increase in the base salary, on consumer confidence seems to be effective. Domestic consumption has renewed its acceleration this month alongside hotter inflation steaming from food and traffic indices. On the other hand, export turnover declined at a more significant pace in August. It is worth noting that the export value of August last year was a historic high, mainly originating from the explosive U.S. and EU consumption after a long period of pandemic. The situation has changed significantly from the peak when retailers and wholesalers fell into overstocking, resulting in fewer new orders to manufacturing hubs, including Vietnam. Hence, we believe that it will take more time for Vietnam’s economy to rely its growth engine on external factors.
29
August
According to the GSO estimate, in Aug, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2bn (-4% mom, +24% yoy). Rice export value surged by 79% mom and 89% yoy to USD583mn. Rice export volume sharply increased by 67% mom and 54% yoy to 1mn tonnes. Vegetable export value was USD410mn (-25% mom, +69% yoy), and it accounted for 21% of total agriculture export turnover (+5.5%p yoy).
29
August
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period. The bullish move would come back only when 1,240 pts zone is broken.
29
August
The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals. In the next sessions, if the VNIndex remains above 1,200-pts with high liquidity, the selling signal formed on August 18, 2023 may be not right.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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