07
September
The stock market remains to rise strongly in the session with high liquidity, indicating buying signals. Although consolidation sessions may appear around the important resistance level of 1,240 - 1,250 pts, an uptrend is still present as the VNIndex closes above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open again long positions and focus on the leading stocks.
06
September
VCG’s revenue doubled by +108% yoy, 132.4% qoq (VND4.5tn), and NPAT skyrocketed to VND130.3bn (+592% qoq) compared to 2Q22 loss of VND60.3bn. The real estate accounting for 25% of revenue in 1H23 posted a GM of 29% (+9%p yoy) than the construction division (60% of total revenue, GM: 2.1%, -3.3%p yoy). The Company's interest expense in 1H23 was VND430.9bn, +11% yoy. The revenue growth pushing up the interest coverage to 5x in 2Q23 from 3.3x in 2Q22
06
September
Long VN30F2309 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level (Hourly chart).
06
September
The stock market has the 5th consecutive gaining session with high liquidity, showing positive signals. In the short term, the VNIndex has retested the previous resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts. If this index successfully surpasses with high liquidity, the uptrend will be confirmed. Therefore, investors should stand aside and observe the next movements of the market.
06
September
In general, outflow across Vietnam’s ETF intensified strongly while demand experienced a substantial decline. In this case, selling pressure may present the next time, however, an expectation that demand will still maintain on some major ETFs in the context that the stock market is showing positive movements.
06
September
QNS is the domination of the soymilk market and also holds the second-largest sugar factory in Vietnam. With dominant market share, soymilk segment supplies a cash cow, while we anticipate that QNS's sugar production will be maintained at a high level, ensuring good selling prices and strong profit margins for QNS in the years ahead due to anti-dumping duties. We initiate our coverage on Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS VN) with a BUY rating and target price of VND65,900, implying a 33.0% upside by using a DCF (50%) and PE (50%) methodology.
06
September
The trading interest remained to spread to all cover warrants with inflow coming back. This indicated positive signals for the cover warrant market in the next time.
05
September
Despite a flattish 2Q23 revenue growth of -3.4%yoy (VND39.9tn), earnings growth rattled by 41.5% yoy due to the interest burden coupled with an unfavorable comparison base. Gross profit reduced to VND4.9tn (-15.5%yoy). Costly material thinned industry gross margins, particularly for residential contractors. In contrast, infrastructure builders with BOT projects sustained healthier gross margins. Contractors were weighted by surging interest expense including C4G (+95 % yoy interest expense growth in 2Q23), PC1 (+59% yoy), TCD (+67% yoy).
05
September
Although the aggregate loan balance returned to grow in August, the improvement was modest. Interbank rates remain cheap despite the long holiday, suggesting that the liquidity condition is persistently excessive and government policies in encouraging economic activities need more time to be material. In the vein of government support, the postponement of clauses 8, 9, and 10 of Article 8 of Circular No. 39/2016/TT-NHNN became effective in September. We expect SBV’s decision to ease a few requirements for borrowers and improve credit performance for the future months. In the notable development, USDVND rose further at a softer pace than the previous week primarily due to the prolonged situation of negative swap spread and higher demand for raw materials from importers to the peak season 2-3 months later.
05
September
Long VN30F2309 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,200 pts level (Hourly chart).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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