11
September
Massive outflow in 6 consecutive weeks has raised the red flag for the unstable flow of money in Vietnam. In this case, we expect that the flow of money across Vietnam could continue to be unstable in upcoming period and outflow could continue to be active.
11
September
The FTSE Rusell announced that the FTSE Vietnam Index will add VIX, but not remove any tickers in this review. Moreover, the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index will not add or exclude any tickers.
11
September
Long positions on VN30F2309 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level (Hourly chart).
11
September
The stock market decreased slighly with high liquidity, indicating investors’ caution sentiment at the important resistance zone. However, an uptrend is still present as the VNIndex maintains to end above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open long positions and focus on leading stocks.
11
September
Market recovery for three consecutive weeks in the short term, and the increasing trading liquidity is a crucial confirmation at present.
08
September
We expect the stock market to maintain its uptrend with a target range of 1,260 to 1,340 points for late 2023 thanks to macro factors such as (1) Improvement in Foreign Direct Investment and (2) The easy money policy.
08
September
Long positions on VN30F2309 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level (Hourly chart).
08
September
Selling pressure comes back again at the important resistance zone of 1,240-1,250 pts, causing the stock market to slow down. The VNIndex decreases slightly with liquidity still at a high level, showing investors’s caution sentiment toward the market. However, the uptrend is still intact as this index maintains to close above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, investors should open long positions and focus on leading stocks.
07
September
The FTSE Rusell announced that the FTSE Vietnam Index will add VIX, but not remove any tickers in this review. Accordingly, we expect that FTSE Vietnam ETF will sell HPG and VRE the most with 16.9 million shares and 6.4 million shares, based on data as of 6 Sep 2023. On the buy-side, VIX, VND, and VNM will be bought heavily with 12.6 million shares, 9.2 million shares, and 5.7 million shares. The new weights will be effective on 17 Sep 2023.
07
September
Long positions on VN30F2309 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,220 pts level (Hourly chart).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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