14
April
In 2022, we forecast that the seafood export value could reach USD9.2bn (+5.4% yoy). The validity of tariffs in FTAs sharpens the Vietnam fishery’s competitive edges and that bolsters export growth. Our Overweight rating on Vietnam’s seafood industry is based on the strong potential earnings growth for pangasius producers backed by the sustainable export demand.
14
April
We value VNM using a DCF (70%) and PE (30%) methodology. We maintain our HOLD rating with our target price of VND83,900. Our target price implies a target 2022F PE of 18.9x, which is equal to its peers. The sluggish outlook has been relatively reflected in the share price, VNM has underperformed the market by 20% over the last six months. Therefore, we maintain our Hold rating despite the subdued outlook and cheap valuation. At our target price of VND83,900, the upside is 14.9%.
14
April
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines. The strong support is a zone of 1,430-1,440 pts. The VNIndex may rebound when retesting it.
14
April
Long position on VN30F2204 should be held. However, the loss should be stopped when there is the closing price below 1,475 pts level. For new long positions, traders could wait for the valid buy point. (Hourly chart)
14
April
The VN30Index and VNFIN LEAD Index rebalances their weight according to the new free-float rate, share outstanding, price... While VN DIAMOND Index is expected to add OCB, HCM, and DHC and remove CTD, KDH, and NLG.
13
April
Because of the downtrend, the downside risk increases in the short term. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines. The strong support is a zone of 1,430-1,440 pts. The VNIndex may rebound when retesting it.
13
April
Long position on VN30F2204 should be held. However, the loss should be stopped when there is the closing price below 1,475 pts level. For new long positions, traders could wait for the positive reaction at 1,500 pts zone to validate the trading signal. (Hourly chart)
12
April
Last week, trading activity kept increasing across the covered warrant market, ip 10% WoW. Besides, foreign trading activity was more active but the market continued to end up to be net sold.
12
April
Foreign supply ticked up. Selling activity focused on Real Estate and Materials whilst demand focused on Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, outflow surged, driven by the divestment on FTSE Vietnam and VFMVN30 ETF.
12
April
Because the VNIndex closes below the 1,500-pts threshold, the downside risk increases. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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