26
April
Market commentary: A crash
Based on the crash, the downside risk increased. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
26
April
Based on the crash, the downside risk increased. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
25
April
Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 25.1 times and 12MF PB is 1.2x times, slightly higher than the 1-year median of 24.1x and 1.1, respectively. Even though the share price has been pulled back steeply recently, we do not think the stock is worth accumulation. We view that SCR’s strong rally has been over manifested since the market sentiment of individual investors is betting on the positive changes in the licensing landscape in which SCR’s key land bank, idle for years will reap the rewards. Given the lengthy projects, abundant exposure to hospitality projects, and concerning corporate governance, SCR is not lucrative to put on the watchlist.
25
April
Foreign demand kept outweighting. Buying activity focused on Real Estate, Industrials, and Consumer Staples whilst large sell orders were placed on Consumer Discretionary. With ETF flow, money inflow surged across Vietnam, driven by the solid demand on VFMVN30 and Fubon FTSE.
25
April
Traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the new short positions which would come after the rebound phase or consolidation phase.
25
April
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term. The rectangle pattern is confirmed with the pattern's target of a 1,330-pts zone. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
25
April
Traders should be careful and wait for the next signal in this situation. Besides, they should reduce long positions and stay on the sidelines.
25
April
On Apr 23rd, we joined in Nam Viet Corporation’s analyst meeting to update BOD view on 2022 business guidance. ANV announced its draft 2022 guidance with VND4,600bn revenue (+40% yoy) and VND720bn EBT (+377% yoy), which are mainly driven by (1)r amping up pangasius fillet export, as benefits from the high demand of industry, and (2) Collagen & Gelatin products will contribute to ANV revenue this year. In 1Q22, ANV revealed a solid prelim business result as VND230bn EBT (+3.2x).
25
April
On April 23, Mobile World held its Annual General Meeting which gave the audience a walkthrough of the 2022F business expansion plan. Key focus areas are Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX) and An Khang chains. - MWG sets optimistic 2022F guidance with net revenue of VND140tn (+14% yoy) and NPAT of VND6,350bn (+30% yoy). The higher profit growth rate implies that BHX will reduce its losses in 2022F. Based on management's guidance of 2022F profit, 12MF PE is 14.8x and 12MF PB is 3.7x, lower than the 2-year median PE of 15.6x and PB of 4.0x.
23
April
Even though the share price has been pulled back steeply recently, we do not think the stock is worth of accumulation. We view that DIG’s strong rally has been over manifested since the market sentiment of individual investors is betting on the prosperous outlook backed by rising infrastructure spending in Vung Tau- Dong Nai provinces where DIG’s key land bank is located. Given the lengthy project development is still in pipeline, high leverage is escalating, concerning corporate governance is controlling the market price, DIG is not lucrative
23
April
On April 23, we attended NLG’s 2021 AGM, and the presentation was largely centered on the FY21F guidance, and contract sale target. 5-month lockdown regulation not only attached the sales launches in 2021 but also drags the earnings guidance in 2022F. The company sets a target to post a VND1,206bn net profit, 13% yoy driven by a VND7.1tn revenue, 37% yoy. NLG aims at VND23.3tn contract sales in 2022F, 3.4 times higher yoy growth in 2021 and VND68.7tn accumulated booking sales in 2022F-24F thanks to the sale launches of six projects in the Long An, Dong Nai, Can Tho, Hai Phong, and HCMC.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.