Research Center

The VNIndex is sideways and needs more signals to confirm the next trend.

Long position on VN30F2204 should be held. However, the loss should be stopped when there is the closing price below 1,475 pts level. For better entry, traders could wait the pullback to capture the long positions at 1,500 pts zone. (Hourly chart)

The input-price volatility caused by the geopolitical tension and the pent-up demand for the energy post-COVID19 would compress the company’s margin in 2022F. We estimate gross margin contraction by 4.4%p from 27.4% in 2021 to 23.0% in 2022F. The 1Q22 NPATMI is forecasted at VND8,900bn, +27.7% yoy.

On April 7th, FPT made an AGM presentation briefing for the 2022F business plan and the long-term business expansion plan. FPT sets 2022F guidance of VND42.4tn revenue (+19% yoy), and VND7.6tn PBT (+20.2% yoy), this growth guidance is similar to 2021. Particularly, per management, the 2022F revenue estimate consists of some key contributors: Technology of VND24.9tn (+21.1% yoy), Telecommunications of VND14,6tn (+14.8% yoy) and Education, Investment & Others of VND2.96tn (32.5% yoy). The 2022F PBT guidance comprises of Technology with VND3,360bn (+19.3% yoy), Telecommunications with VND2,812bn (+17.4% yoy), and Education, Investment & Others with VND1,446tn (+28.4% yoy).

Long position on VN30F2204 should be held. However, the loss should be stopped when there is the closing price below 1,475 pts level. For better entry, traders could wait the pullback to capture the long positions at 1,500 pts zone. (Hourly chart)

The downside risk increases in the short term as the selling pressure appears at the 1,530-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.

In March, the liquidity strain in money markets, caused by increasingly widening credit-deposit imbalance, continued to be a dominating force behind a reversal of super-easing interest-rate conditions towards pre-pandemic normal levels. Interbank rates are anchored nearly the ceiling levels, while bond yields continue to suffer increasingly upward pressure in the new-normal conditions. Looking forward, we expect the upward pressure from short-term rates to continue to spread to bond yields in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term. Short-term and medium-term yields may continue to increase sharply with high volatility, while longer-term yields would feel the pressure right behind them.

Despite the rebound, the VNIndex has retested the Jan peak around the 1,530-pts threshold in the short term. The bullish market will be confirmed if the index closes above the threshold. In this case, traders should open long positions and focus on leading sectors such as Banking.

In 3M22, aggregate output volume went up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery, in which hydropower and renewable energy are the biggest beneficiaries. Total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group were only 77% and lacked 1.36 million tonnes compared to contracted volume. Some coal-fired power plants are operating at 60-70% of capacity. EVN predicted a shortage of 3,000 megawatts of electricty.

Trading value in 1Q22 was VND31.2tn (-7.1% QoQ) thanks to high liquidity in Jan and Mar. Number of of new accounts created new high record in March with 270,636 accounts. At end-Mar, accumulated number of accounts was 4.95mn. The ratio of domestic individuals accounts overpopulation is 5% which is 2025 target for the stock market. In term of HSX's brokerage market share, VPS expands their market share to 17.94%. SSI and HCM continue to lost their pieces while VND and TCBS slightly uplifted market share.