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18
July
Total May steel sales volume posted 80,917 tonnes, increasing 4.5% mom and decreasing 1.5% yoy. The 6M23 total sales volume came in at 430,331 tonnes, -16.9% yoy. In which, the steel coat volume declined 18.1% yoy to 357,437 tonnes and the steel pipes volume was down by 10.3% yoy to 72,894 tonnes
18
July
Total June steel sales volume posted 116,406 tonnes, dropped by 8.7% yoy and 3.3% mom. The FY9M23 (Oct 2023-Feb 2023) total sale decreased 31.6% yoy to 1,008,369 tonnes as steel pipes volume declined 18.1% yoy to 210,545 tonnes and steel coat fell 34.4% yoy to 797,824 tonnes.
18
July
Total June steel sales volume posted 634,762 tonnes, increasing by 2.5% mom but -1.0% yoy. Construction steel volume increased to 286,036 tonnes, -17.8% yoy, +0.6% mom. In which, domestic sales volume increased by 10.6% mom while its export was down by 55.5% yoy.
18
July
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During June 23, we observed the total consumption volume was slightly down 6.2% mom, 3.1% yoy to 2.0mn tonnes. The total sale volume was slumped due to weak global demand (11.5Mn tonnes, -17.5% yoy).
03
July
On Jun 28, State Bank of Vietnam issued Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN amending Circular 39/20216-TT-NHNN on the lendinig activities with more prudent control and stricter requirement. We view positively since it helps enhance the credit quality control of banking systems and efficiency use of capital flow to economy. Besides, the new circular accommodates the deferred payment foreign loans.
30
June
According to the GSO estimate, in Jun, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2.2bn (+5% mom, +21% yoy). Vegetable keeps being the highest value exported product with USD723mn (+45% mom, +189% yoy), and it accounted for 17% of total agriculture export turnover (+9%p mom), followed by rice (17%, -8%p mom) and coffee (17%, -3%p mom). In which, vegetable export to China in May-23 quintupled yoy to USD482mn, the figure also doubled mom.
30
June
The PDR’s management held the AGM 2023 on Jun 30 to address multiple key concerns about the debt duty coverage, the business plan. Funding demand is aggressive and controversial and we feel hope the launching plan of projects. PDR market price rebounds steeply from the Nov outbreak but we think that this is not enough and PDR deserves more.
29
June
On Jun 29, we attended BCM’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. BCM guides NPAT to be VND2,263bn, +32% yoy on the back of a revenue of VND9,460bn, +19% yoy in 2023. The land transfer deal to Capital Land worth of USD240mn (18.9ha) could attribute to the earnings turnaround in 2023F. The company maintains a cash dividend of 8% at par in 2022F.
29
June
Despite of the increased revenue, TAR met only 62% of NPAT guidance due to (1) high material costs, (2) increased logistic costs and (3) surged interest expenses, according to TAR management.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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