![HPG-Brief-[HOLD]-Export drove the May growth](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
Total May steel sales volume posted 619,165 tonnes, increasing by 5.6% yoy and 15.6% mom thanks to the strong export. The total May domestic sales volume diminished by 19.1% yoy but upped 3.1% mom to 390,548 tonnes.
13
June
5M23 preliminary revenue posted VND4,070bn (-36.3% yoy) backed by high base . Of which, the pangasius export decreased by 44.5% yoy as we estimated the ASP drop significantly 19% yoy, while the volume export decreased in key markets including US, EU, and China in 5M23 due to the weaker demand and high stockpile. We maintain a HOLD rating
01
June
We initiate an Overweight rating on the Crushed Stone industry in 12-month horizons spurred by the robust demand growth serving the public infrastructure spending in 2024-2025F. Going forward, the housing property could bounce back, reinforcing the crushed stone consumption growth in 2024-2023F. However, the South’s crushed stone industry could cite a slow 2023 due to the gloomy housing property dynamics seen in 2020-22. We give BUY ratings to VLB (TP: VND45,100, UPSIDE: +47%) and DHA (TP: VND47,000, UPSIDE: +22%) and HOLD to KSB
29
May
According to the GSO estimate, in May, the total agriculture export value remained stable at USD2.1bn (+2% mom, +19% yoy). Rice keeps being the highest value exported product with USD530mn (-8% mom, +37% yoy), and it accounted for 25% of total agriculture export turnover. Vegetables export value sharply rose by 22% mom and 67% yoy to USD500mn. Vegetables and fruits exporting value to China increased 30% yoy in 4M23. In 2Q23, Vietnam expected to boost durian and sweet potato sales to China market after China Customs certified more qualified export zones in Vietnam.
24
May
We tuned in to MSB’s analyst meeting on May 24 which featured the strategical visibility on the bank and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. The ratio of loan type 2-5 to cross loan and NPL climbed to 5.2% (vs. 3.1% as of end-2022) and 2.0% (vs. 1.7% as of end-2022) respectively. We note that the 1Q23 loan type 2 grew +146%YTD to VND4,337bn, about added VND2,700bn. Restructuring loan on circular 02 is estimated at VND229bn. Of which, SME and retail estimate VNsD189bn and VND40bn respectively according to the management.
23
May
PVS posted a solid business result in 1Q23 with flat revenue of VND3.7tn (-2% yoy), in which, Mechanical & construction (M&C) revenue reach VND2,048b (+4.1% yoy). PVS recorded NPAT-MI of VND215bn (-1% yoy) due to having a one-off profit in 1Q23. In the long term, PVS will focus on offshore wind power.
19
May
We joined VCB’s analyst meeting on May 19 which featured the strategical visibility on the bank and shed some light on its 1Q23 operational updates. VCB released its results with PBT up 12.8% yoy to VND11,221bn, derived from strong top-line growth (+10.7% yoy) and low provision expenses (-11.1%yoy). A significant increase in OPEX (+17.0% yoy) was the key dampening factor. VCB is trading at PB of 3.1x, 209% premium over private peers’ average of 1.49x and lower than the five-year average of 4x.
19
May
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam banking is intended to track the earning growth based on financial statements. The 1Q23 recorded some anomalies when aggregated NPAT of the listed 27 banks was almost unchanged at -4.4%yoy in 1Q23 vs +17.9%yoy in 4Q22 and +31%yoy in 1Q22. Most of the banks saw 1Q23 credit growth slowness and corporate bond balance slump. There are no clear signals for strong credit demand recovery amid the economic downtrend. However, 2Q23 NIM will slightly improve qoq thanks to a decrease in funding cost in 2Q23.
19
May
4M23 preliminary revenue posted VND3,116bn (-36.1% yoy), backed by (1) high base in 4M22, and (2) the tumble revenue of most products yoy and qoq, especially pangasius. 4M23 revenue fulfill 26% our estimates. We maintain a HOLD rating
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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