29
April
The economic condition continued going more favorable in April as production, trade, and consumption activities recover further compared to the same period last year. Besides, CPI upward pressure became softer this month when the uptrend in world commodity prices become less aggressive. Hence, we indicate that the macroeconomic conditions generally remain stable in this month.
12
April
Modest economic growth in 1Q21 put pressure on the target economic growth for full-year 2021. However, there are still some factors bolstering the economy in the next quarter, including COVID-19-devastated low base output in the same period last year, ongoing economic recovery, and promising fiscal spending from the newly-formed government. Also, accelerating vaccination and fiscal reliefs on a global scale add more favors for export activity and export-driven manufacturing in the next quarter.
07
April
After experiencing high volatility last month, the money and government-bond markets backed to normalization in March with improved banking liquidity. Interbank rates again stayed at low levels, while long-term yields saw loosening upward pressure. We expect that this trend would be ongoing in April, and interbank rates and G-bond yields would likely move in a tight range.
31
March
GSO’s figures show that Vietnam’s real gross domestic product (GDP) sustained its modest growth rate at 4.48%, leaning back on the impressive improvement in taxes-less-subsidies (TLS) and industry and construction (I&C) items. We believe that the Decree 41 tax deferral policy drove the TLS’s to grow notably this period.
09
March
Ongoing developments in the interbank and G-bond markets showed more tightening liquidity conditions than previously, which resulted in upward pressure on interbank rates and G-bond yields. From our perspective, rising inflation, global G-bond yield hikes, and improving lending activity are potential drivers for interbank rates and G-bond yields to increase further in March.
04
March
February showed a gloomy picture for the economic activity due to a long holiday. Export and production posted the first reduction since the pandemic, while CPI recorded the strongest increase in 8 years. For the outlook in March, we expect the well-controlled pandemic situation domestically and accelerating COVID-19 vaccines distribution globally will push economic growth back to expansionary.
01
March
05
February
Due to the lending activity accelerating in 2020-end and high demand for cash just before the New Year’s period, short-term fixed-income rates were facing great upward pressure by late-January. Interbank rates and short-term G-bond yields were breaking a multi-month downward trend in the month. From our perspective, the interbank and G-bond markets will continue to face liquidity shortage temporarily, which in turn push those corresponding rates to higher levels in February.
05
February
Vietnam's economic conditions in the first month of 2021 remain favorable as trade activities and retail sales continued high growth. Looking ahead to February, the domestic economic activity may be weakening due to the new outbreak, and the negative impact will be largely dependent on how the government controls the pandemic.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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