01
March
Vietnam's economy continues to be on a growth track during the reopening progress with trade and manufacturing sectors remaining the main growth drivers. What worries us for now is the uneven economic recovery as domestic consumption is in weakness after months since the reopening, which is less than our expectation.
17
February
In January, during a high liquidity demand period, surging interbank rates continued to put upward pressure on fixed-income markets. Developments in the post-Tet period this year are also abnormal with liquidity tension yet to be eased. Looking ahead to February, from our view, tightening liquidity conditions in the banking system, combined with widening mismatch in credit-deposit growth and accelerating economic recovery pace, would put more upward pressure on the government bond yields.
08
February
In January 2022, long-holiday effects caused economic recovery to temporarily slow down from the impressive recovery since 4Q21. Export activity decelerated from a record high last month, especially in highly FDI-concentrated areas. The seasonality also impacted labor-intensive industries in the industrial sector, limiting its high-growth momentum in the previous period. However, those seasonal effects are only short-lived, and the economy is expected to return to a high-growth track in the upcoming months.
25
January
The impressive rebound of Vietnam’s economy in 4Q21 creates momentum for further economic recovery in 2022. We expect the following sectors to be key growth pillars for the economy: (1) robust and stable industrial growth thanks to secured production activity and increased export demand; (2) pent-up demand in domestic spending in the reopening phase; (3) strong recovery in capital investment, primarily driven by investment demand from government and FDI. Last but not least, the upcoming fiscal - monetary support program will further push the economy back to the high-growth track in 2022.
14
January
Corporate bond offerings rebounded to VND102.9tn, 86.3% mom, +60.9% yoy in Dec, promting to VND698.3tn, +52.9% yoy in 2021. Commercial banks and stockbroking firms subscribed 55.9%/21.5% in Dec, and 31.3%/38.9% in 2021. Individual bondholders made up 4.9% and corporate lenders occupied 19.9% in 2021.
12
January
A seasonally high liquidity demand in December put significant upward pressure on fixed-income interest rates, especially the ones with short-term and mid-term maturity. From our view, this pressure would continue to exaggerate in January, but it would likely be faded away after that. Besides, accelerating credit growth momentum and higher inflation outlook would be the main drivers for fixed-income rates to the upside. Taking all into account, fixed-income rates are expected to form higher levels in January.
31
December
After a severe contraction in 3Q21, Vietnam's economy has successfully backed into the pre-pandemic growth track in the fourth quarter. It is visible that the main growth drivers for 4Q21 are from the manufacturing and export areas when these sectors have a phenomenal run in the reopening phase. Meanwhile, marked recovery in retail sales in the last two months also eases some pressure on the economic growth. These developments lay a strong foundation for the economic outlook in the next year.
08
December
Corporate bond offerings slumped to VND26.9tn, -53% mom, -3.2% yoy in Nov, prompting to VND547.2tn, +52.1% yoy in 11M21. Commercial banks and security firms subscribed 27.4%/36.3% in Nov, and 28%/42% in 11M21. Since commercial banks constituted 33% of total Real Estate bond subscription and 70% of total Real Estate bond offerings aimed to refinance, to leveraged buyout, and expand, we estimate a 20-21% of total bond issuance could be hit by this circular 16.
03
December
Interest rate conditions continued to be accommodative in November thanks to massive inflows of liquidity in the banking system. Interbank rates remained around their bottoms in recent months, while bond yields were finding their new record lows. However, a fast pace of economic recovery in the early reopening may result in a marked change in the super-low interest-rate environment in the near term. From our view, this upward pressure on interest rate levels could materialize from December.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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