01
February
Although the high demand is around the 1,100-pts threshold, the downside risk is still intact. If the index closes below the support, the uptrend is reversed. Therefore, traders should wait for the confirmed signals before resuming open long positions.
31
January
The VNIndex retests the 1,100-pts threshold, pushing downside risk increase. If the index closes below the support, the uptrend is reversed. Therefore, traders should wait for the confirmed signals before resuming open long positions.
30
January
Market ended up to be net bought. In which, Financials was bought the most, following by Real Estate, Materials, and Consumer Staples. With ETF flow across Vietnam, net inflow was USD70mn. The inflow was mainly lifted by the strong demand on VanEck ETF, VFMVN30 ETF, and X FTSE Vietnam.
30
January
The VNIndex closes above the 1,100-pts threshold, implying the bullish market. Therefore, traders should open long positions with small size.
30
January
The VNIndex confirms the bullish uptrend thanks to the breakout at the 1,100-pts threshold.
27
January
The VNIndex closes above the 1,100-pts threshold, but the liquidity is low. Hence, the breakout may be false. Traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
19
January
In the short term, the downside risk reduces before the Tet holiday thanks to the breakout. However, the profit-taking may appear around the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
18
January
The downside risk reduces before the Tet holiday thanks to the breakout. However, the profit-taking may appear around the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
18
January
HoSE announced new constituents of the VN30Index and VNFIN LEAD Index last Monday. Accordingly, the VN30Index will add BCM and remove KDH in the 1H23 review. Besides, the VNFIN LEAD Index will not include or remove any tickers. Based on data as of 17 July 2023, we expect local ETFs to buy MWG, GMD, and OCB the most with 13.9 million shares, 9.1 million shares, and 5.3 million shares, respectively. On the sell side, MSB will be sold heavily with 11.3 million shares.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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