07
July
The fixed-income securities markets currently are overflowing with excess liquidity as short-term government bond yields and interbank rates find their record lows. However, a strong increase in the credit growth in June, from our perspective, indicated that part of surplus liquidity was being withdrawn from the banking system, which in turn could reverse the current trend.
03
June
We see an easing path of monetary policy as SBV not only pauses the liquidity withdrawal in the open market but also lowers short-term rates in several funding markets, according to the Decision 418/QĐ-NHNN 2020. Short-term interbank rates reacted quickly to this decision when dropping to near all-time low levels, while short-term bond yields also fell off after the rate-cut signal.
05
May
From our viewpoint, SBV’s intervention of withdrawing liquidity out of the banking system in early April was considered a temporary liquidity adjustment rather than a long-term tightening monetary stance. On the other side, G-bond yields were back to its downward momentum in the month, showing market participants are fleeing to safe-haven assets amid the economic turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
16
March
In February 2020, the liquidity in the interbank market was still ample and SBV continued pouring the money away the banking system, via 91-day T-bills, to maintain the overnight interbank rate within the interest rate corridor.
13
February
In January 2020, we saw opposite movements of short- and long-term interbank yields in the mix of temporary tightening signals from SBV and rising concerns related to coronavirus disease. Short-term interbank rates generally bounced back after hitting their lows in previous month as the SBV send temporary tightening signals by using 91-day T-bill offerings.
15
January
SBV withdraws liquidity from banking system in December. SBV drained VND46.4trn from the banking system through repo channel as the central bank only offered VND60.8trn repo with 14-day maturity to partly absorb VND107.1trn of due repo contract. Also, there are no T-bill auctions held in this month.
16
December
SBV injected VND133.2trn into banking system via OMO market, including VND84trn via T-bill, and VND49.2trn via repo channels. Interbank interest rate on most of maturities hiked after hitting the bottom level of 2019 except for 9-month rate.
25
November
Data from SBV shows a net injection of liquidity via OMO market in October 2019. Similar to the recent months, the central bank mostly used 7-day T-bill to put a tightening pressure on the liquidity of the market. However, transactions recorded a slowdown by the end of last month.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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