![VHC – Earnings Review 4Q2019 [BUY +18.4%] U.S. rebound to offset China slowdown](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
16
February
In 2020, we expect the rebound of the U.S. market to offset the 2019-nCoV-induced slowdown of Chinese one. Moreover, the recent price plunge has made VHC share valuation attractive. We revise downward VHC target price to VND37,800 by the end of 2020 but maintain BUY recommendation. Including VND2,000 cash dividend, total 1-year expected return for Vinh Hoan’s share is 18.4%.
16
February
We believe that the current market plunge is overreaction due to the bad 4Q19 performance. In addition, the long-term prospective of PCC1 is attractive based on the growth of power generation part which is to improve earnings quality. Thanks to the operation of the 3 new power plants and Thanh Xuan project, PCC1 will enjoy a fruitful FY2020. Using Sum of the Parts method, we evaluate the PC1 share at VND23,100 by the end of 2020 so that total expected return is 54%. Recommend BUY
31
January
Because of a more severe El Nino for hydropower and a cloudy outlook for construction segment in 2020, we are going to revise our forecast for Power Construction No.1 in 2020
31
January
Binh Minh Plastic reported Q4 FY2019 results with revenue of VND1,159bn, down 5.7% YoY, and net profit of VND95bn, down 34.3% YoY. In addition, gross margin contracted to 21.9% in 4Q2019, compared to 23.4% in 4Q2018, for a 2-year decline since 1Q2018.
31
January
Ha Tien 1 reported Q4 FY2019 results with revenue of VND2,284bn, up 1.4% YoY and net profit of VND216bn, rose 12.3% YoY. In addition, gross margin stayed high at 19.3% in 4Q2019, compared to 17.8% in 4Q2018
19
December
Regarding to environment issues, we observe Hoa Phat’s remarkable efforts in both air, water and solid waste treatment though applying advanced technology to develop closed-loop systems.
04
December
Masan MEATLife lists its common shares on UPCoM on 09 December 2019 with the ticker MML. Masan MEATLife is one of the two largest players in animal feed market. The strategy to expand its business to meat market with MEATDeli pork product will make meat business become the growth driver for Masan MEATLife on the path to 2022.
25
October
Despite outperforming other local players at the present, HT1 will face capacity constraint, thus limiting its growth in 2020-2021. Using the average EV/EBITDA of 4.5 and P/E of 9.5, we evaluate the HT1 share at VND17,100 by the end of 2020. Including the VND1,200 cash dividend per share, total expected return is 10.9% at the current market price of VND16,500. Recommend NEUTRAL.
25
October
Based on 1-Y average PER of 5.5x, we evaluate VHC’s share value at VND90,000 per share by the end of 2020. According to today (24/10/2019) price is VND78,500, the total 1-year expected return is 17.1%, including VND2,000 cash dividend. Our recommendation on VHC is OVERWEIGHT for 1-year investment period.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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