![BMP – Review 1Q20 [HOLD] COVID-19 cannot stop Binh Minh](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
06
May
Binh Minh reported 1Q20 NPAT of VND102bn, up 12.3% YoY. This result is attributed to aggressive promotion program to gain market share. We expect positive results in 2Q20 thanks to lower input cost. However, in longer term, oversupply situation may remain until 2023 so that we remain our HOLD recommendation
05
May
We catch our eyes on the progress of 2nd phase of Dung Quat as Italian engineers still cannot go to Vietnam. This delay will negatively affect the cash flow of Hoa Phat and its profitability. Moreover, we concern the large steel inventory of China. Therefore, we maintain HOLD recommendation.
05
May
We like KDH given its strong brand name in property market, healthy balance sheet and current potential upside of 21.4% for short-term investment. We believe the strong promotion packages offered to homebuyers’ of Venita Park and Lovera Vista projects will partially remove the shadow over KDH which has emerged due to the slower demand for real estate
04
May
DXG’s market price has plunged sharply in the FY18-19 as the investors are doubtful on the possibility of getting license to launch Gem Riverside project. The COVID-19 impact toward brokerage segment has dragged more the price down. We believe those concerns have priced in and we think market sentiment would improve given the successful launch of Long Duc township (land lots) in 2H20F
29
April
We have estimate review on Nam Viet’s 1-year business, highlighting by 2020 NPAT decrease of 34% yoy, mainly driven by lower ASP and low volume contribution from Binh Phu farming. Therefore, we downgrade our rating for Nam Viet’s share to Hold in 2020.
28
April
ACB 1Q20 results confirms the bank’s strength in retail banking market. NP came at VND1,537bn, up 13% yoy. Loans grew 2.3% ytd with low NPL ratio of 0.65%. Deposit was in the spotlight, up 2.0% ytd as of March 2020 vs. 0.51% of the whole industry (as of 20 Mar 2020). We maintain BUY with a TP of VND28,900. ACB is our sector top pick thanks to its healthy balance sheet and prudent credit policy which allow it go through pandemic circumstance with credit cost of below 1% in 2020.
28
April
We retain our Add rating with a TP of VND29,200 based on 30-50% discount to mega project’s RNAV. Presales at Waterpoint is now critical for the share price performance because of their significant RNAV contributions to our valuation. Risks to our call: 1) a prolonged COVID-19 that curbing buyer purchasing power for its mid-range condos 2) regulatory changes causing more project delays.
28
April
We expect Ha Tien 1’s performance will strongly rebound in 2021. Together with the ability to improve ASP amid weak domestic market, strong cash flow due to low CAPEX and interest expenses are 2 big plus. Using the PE of 9.0, we evaluate the HT1 share at VND16,400 by the end of 2021. Including the VND1,200 cash dividend per share, total expected annualized return for 2 year holding period is 22.1% at the current market price of VND12,900. Recommend BUY
27
April
VCB 1Q20 NP was down 11% yoy on the swell of credit provision and OPEX. Overdue ratio increased to 1.5% from 1.1% at end-2019. However, these were sheltered by excessive credit loss reserves of 235%. We give a HOLD on VCB.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
Tiếng Việt
普通话
