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The stock rose for a second week on Friday. The share price surged VND900.0 (or 8.9%) to VND11,000.0 in the week ending Friday December 02. Compared with the VN index which rose 0.5 points (or 0.1%) in the week, this represented a relative price change of 8.8%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Uptrend
Breakout: the stock traded at high of VND11,100.0. The bulls are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close exceeding yesterday’s levels.
Support: the support price is hovering at the VND9,700.0 level. Volume traded at the fragile support price zone was 0.1 times average during the nine occasions when the support price was breached. In the last three months the first low was at VND9,700.0 on Sep 06, the second at VND9,700.0 on Oct 21. The third decline halted at VND9,700.0 on Oct 25, the 4th at VND9,700.0 on Nov 02 and the 5th at VND9,800.0 on Oct 26
Resistance: resistance is apparent at VND11,100.0. However, selling pressure at that level has been weak; volume was 0.6 times average during the two occasions when the resistance price was breached in the last one month. In the last one month the highest was at VND11,100.0 on Dec 02, the second advance halted at VND10,900.0 on Dec 01.
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility: the stock traded between an intraweek low of VND10,100.0 and high of VND11,100.0.
Volume and turnover period: there were 2,638,840 shares worth VND28.3 billion (US$1.3 million) traded. The volume was 1.8 times average trading per week of 1,459,423 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 36.6% (or a turnover period of 2 years 8 months).
% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 16.0% to the 12-month high of VND13,100.0 a year ago on 15 Dec, 2010.
% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 35.8% to the 12-month low of VND8,100.0 six months ago on 26 May, 2011.
Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a premium of 6.6% to the 3-month volume weighted average price of VND10,322.123. In the past year the premium has been greater than 6.6% just five times, suggesting a topish level and cautious buying at the current price.
TREND IN VOLUME WEIGHTED PRICE
The Volume Weighted Price (VWP) is the summation of turnover [or price at which shares were sold times the volume of shares] divided by the total volume and represents an average based on turnover of all transactions over the period. In the past week the Volume Weighted Price was VND10,742.68, up from VND10,121.27 in the previous week. Average daily volume of some 291,885 shares declined 3.0% from 300,786 shares. The 5-week VWP is VND10,329.65.
[All figures except Volume in VND/ Hao]:
In the last two weeks there have been consecutive rises in the mid-bounce price (average of high and low) as well as rise in the VWP pointing to a week-on-week uptrend.
THIS WEEK’S PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS
The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors.
The following index and sector rose setting the trend for its rise of 8.9% for the week (rank by percentage price change of stock for 1 week;12 months in sector/index in brackets):
Energy sector (rank 2;1 out of 16) which was up 0.5 points or 0.2% to 207.6,
VN index (rank 10;22 out of 179) which was up 0.5 points or 0.1% to 383.9
The stock’s rise went against the trend set by Total Vietnam Market (rank 15;31 out of 300) which was down 15.2 points or 4.8% to 302.2
The Energy company sector is the 5th largest by market capitalisation out of Vietnam’s 19 sectors. It is made up of 16 publicly listed companies with a combined market capitalisation of VND15,236.6 billion (US$725 million). The main players in the sector include Petrovietnam Drilling and Well Services, Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower, Pha Lai Thermal Power and Thac Ba Hydropower.
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
– The earnings yield of 16.84% is 1.3 times the 10-year bond yield of 12.613%.
Bearish Signals:
– Price/Earnings of 5.9 versus sector average of 5.3 and market average of 5.4.
– Price/Sales of 4.3 versus sector average of 0.8 and market average of 1.1.
– The Price to Book of 1.0 higher than average of 1.0 for the Total Vietnam Market.
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:- The price surged 8.9% in the last week.
– This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.8 times average for the week.
– Compared with the VN index which rose 0.1% for the week, this represented a relative price increase of 8.8% for the week.
– In the Vietnam market of 279 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 91 which means it is beating 91% of the market.
– A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
– Also, the relative strength percentile is rising at 91 for 6 months, 92 for 3 months and 98 for 1 month.
– The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. The 50-day EMAP has increased to VND10,072.05. An increase is another bullish indicator.
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Trailing five weeks: the stock rose ten times (38% of the time), was unchanged eight times (31% of the time), fell seven times (27% of the time) and was untraded once (4% of the time). The volume was 0.8 times average trading of 7,589,001 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested five weeks ago is VND1,089 [vs VND911 for the VN index] for a capital gain of VND89.
Trailing thirteen weeks: the stock was unchanged twenty five times (38% of the time), rose twenty two times (33% of the time), fell eighteen times (27% of the time) and was untraded once (2% of the time). The volume was 0.7 times average trading of 19,264,386 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested thirteen weeks ago is VND1,078 [vs VND883 for the VN index] for a capital gain of VND78.
Trailing Two Years: the value of VND1,000 invested two years ago is VND598 [vs VND788 for the VN index] for a capital loss of VND402.
Access comprehensive Stock Research on http://www.buysellsignals.net/BuySellSignals/report/Vietnam/Stock/PDF/Weekly/Vietnam_pdf_181.pdf
MARKET SHARE
Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower vs Energy sector [Energy sector Total in Brackets]
MCap of VND2,224.7 billion (US$105.9 million)[14.6% of Aggregate Sector MCap of VND15,236.6 billion (US$725 million); up from 11.0% in the previous year.]
ISSUED CAPITAL
Based on 202,241,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is VND2,224.7 billion (US$105.9 million).
ACTIVITIES
Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company generates electricity.
TOP MANAGEMENT
The chairman is Thanh Van Nguyen.
Currency Conversion: US$1=21,015.0 Vietnamese Dong (VND). VND1 = 10Hao.