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The price is at a discount of 13.2% to the 3-month volume weighted average price of VND11,175.909, which may appeal as a value proposition. Compared with the VN index which fell 6.7 points (or 1.8%) in the week, this represented a relative price change of 2.8%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Uptrend
Breakout: the bulls are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close exceeding yesterday’s levels.
Support: the support price is hovering at the VND9,200.0 level. Volume traded at the fragile support price zone was 0.03 times average during the two occasions when the support price was breached. In the last one month the first low was at VND9,200.0 on Nov 29, the second decline halted at VND9,200.0 on Nov 30.
Resistance: the stock hit a new a two-week high of VND10,500.0 high on decreased volume index of 0.4 on Friday. Previous rallies have been met with resistance at VND11,600.0. However, selling pressure at that level has been weak; volume was 0.7 times average during the three occasions when the resistance price was breached in the last one month. In the last one month the highest was at VND11,600.0 on Nov 14, the second highest at VND11,600.0 on Nov 15. The third advance halted at VND11,500.0 on Nov 11.
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility: the stock traded between an intraweek low of VND9,600.0 and a two-week high of VND10,500.0.
Relativities: in the Vietnam market of 280 stocks traded today, the stock has a trailing week relative strength of 62.0 indicating it is trailing 38.0% of the market.
Volume and turnover period: there were 25,260 shares worth VND249.7 million (US$11,887.1) traded. The volume was 0.4 times average trading per week of 70,473 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 5.6% (or a turnover period of 18 years 7 days).
% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 35.3% to the 12-month high of VND15,000.0 a year ago on 31 Dec, 2010.
% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 5.4% to the 12-month low of VND9,200.0 nine-days ago on 30 Nov, 2011.
Falls to Rises: In the last six months the number of falls outnumbered rises 11:10 or 1.1:1.
TREND IN VOLUME WEIGHTED PRICE
The Volume Weighted Price (VWP) is the summation of turnover [or price at which shares were sold times the volume of shares] divided by the total volume and represents an average based on turnover of all transactions over the period. In the past week the Volume Weighted Price was VND9,886.18, up from VND9,485.04 in the previous week. Average daily volume of some 14,095 shares declined 2.5% from 14,462 shares. The 5-week VWP is VND10,940.44.
[All figures except Volume in VND/ Hao]:
THIS WEEK’S PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS
The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors.
The stock’s rise of 1.0% for the week went against the trend set by the following index and sectors (rank by percentage price change of stock for 1 week;12 months in sector/index in brackets):
Energy sector (rank 6;3 out of 16) which was down 6.4 points or 3.1% to 201.2,
Total Vietnam Market (rank 108;46 out of 300) which was down 6.2 points or 2.0% to 296.1,
VN index (rank 64;33 out of 179) which was down 6.7 points or 1.8% to 377.2
The Energy company sector is the 5th largest by market capitalisation out of Vietnam’s 19 sectors. It is made up of 16 publicly listed companies with a combined market capitalisation of VND14,769.5 billion (US$703 million). The main players in the sector include Petrovietnam Drilling and Well Services, Pha Lai Thermal Power, Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower and Thac Ba Hydropower.
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
– Price/Earnings of 4.8 versus sector average of 5.3 and market average of 5.3.
– The earnings yield of 21.06% is 1.7 times the 10-year bond yield of 12.5%.
– The Price to Book of 0.8 lower than average of 1.0 for the Total Vietnam Market.
– Dividend Yield of 6.2% (based on trailing 12 months dividends of VND600.0) versus sector average of 5.1% and market average of 3.0%. The company paid out a dividend of VND600.0 in the past 12 months. The 10-year bond yield is currently 12.5%.
Bearish Signals:
– Price/Sales of 2.95 versus sector average of 0.9 and market average of 1.0.
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
– The price rose 1.0% in the last week.
Bearish Signals:
– The price crashed 14.2% in the last month.
– Compared with the VN index which fell 6.9% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease of 7.2% for the month.
– In the Vietnam market of 280 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 61 which means it has outperformed 61% of the market.
– The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.9, a bearish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has been under 0.9 just six times suggesting a support level. The 50-day EMAP has decreased to VND10,678.349. A decrease is another bearish indicator.
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Trailing five weeks: the stock fell thirteen times (50% of the time), rose seven times (27% of the time), was untraded four times (15% of the time) and was unchanged twice (8% of the time). The volume was 0.8 times average trading of 324,175 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested five weeks ago is VND843 [vs VND920 for the VN index] for a capital loss of VND157.
Trailing thirteen weeks: the stock fell twenty six times (39% of the time), rose twenty times (30% of the time), was unchanged thirteen times (20% of the time) and was untraded seven times (11% of the time). The volume was 0.6 times average trading of 845,674 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested thirteen weeks ago is VND882 [vs VND822 for the VN index] for a capital loss of VND118.
Trailing Two Years: the value of VND1,000 invested two years ago is VND534 [vs VND822 for the VN index], including a capital loss of VND492 and dividend reinvested of VND26.
Access comprehensive Stock Research on http://www.buysellsignals.net/BuySellSignals/report/Vietnam/Stock/PDF/Weekly/Vietnam_pdf_141.pdf
MARKET SHARE
Thac Ba Hydropower vs Energy sector [Energy sector Total in Brackets]
MCap of VND616 billion (US$29.3 million)[4.2% of Aggregate Sector MCap of VND14,769.5 billion (US$703 million); up from 3.5% in the previous year.]
ISSUED CAPITAL
Based on 63,500,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is VND616 billion (US$29.3 million).
ACTIVITIES
Thac Ba Hydropower J.S.C. is engaged in the hydropower manufacturing industry. The Company operates through four main segments: electrical energy, electrical equipment, project and others. The electrical energy segment manufactures and trades electrical energy. The electrical equipment segment controls, maintains, upgrades hydropower plants and factories.
TOP MANAGEMENT
The chairman is Giang Ngoc Dai.
Currency Conversion: US$1=21,008.0 Vietnamese Dong (VND). VND1 = 10Hao.