Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower Hits Year-Low 1st Time In Three Months

The stock fell for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday bringing its four-day fall to VND2,800.0 or 25.9%. The stock price fell VND300.0 (or 3.6%) to close at VND8,000.0. Compared with the VN index, which fell 3.1 points (or 0.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -2.8%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Significant Downtrend

Spotting the top or distribution: the price was down on higher volume today. There have been four such events of Distribution in the last two weeks. Combined with the fact that the last price of VND8,000.0 was lower than today’s mid-bounce price [average of price high and price low] of 8100.0 is a bearish signal.

Support: the support price is hovering at the VND7,900.0 level. Volume traded at the support price zone was 3.9 time average during the single occasion when the support price was breached. In the last month the lowest price was VND7,900.0 on Dec 15.

Resistance: resistance is apparent at VND11,400.0. Volume was 4.2 times average during the single occasion when the resistance price was breached in the last one month. In the last one month the high was at VND11,400.0 on Dec 05.

Falls to Rises: The stock fell in four out of last 5 trading days, for a 5-day fall of 25.9% to close at VND8,000.0. In the last three months the number of falls outnumbered rises 22:18 or 1.22:1.

Trailing month: in the last 21 trading sessions there has been a net decline of 20%; the stock has retreated 4 times and the biggest one day decline was 21.7% on Dec 14.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Volatility: the stock traded between an intraday low of VND7,900.0 and a high of VND8,300.0, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 5.1% was 2.6 times its average volatility of 2.0%. A price fall on high volatility is a bearish signal. The average daily volatility of 2.4% places the stock in the 4th quartile in the market meaning it is least volatile.

Volume: there were 1,153,000 shares worth VND9.2 billion (US$439,029) traded. The volume was 3.9 times average trading of 296,722 shares.

% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 38.9% to the 12-month high of VND13,100.0 a year ago on 15 Dec, 2010.

% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 1.3% to the 12-month low of VND7,900.0.

Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a discount of 22.3% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of VND10,293.335, which may appeal as a value proposition.

Beta: The Beta of this stock is 0.49. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

Standard Deviation (SD): SD is a statistical measure of deviation from the mean. The SD of 1.9% gives it a percentile rank of 5 meaning that 5% of stocks in the Vietnam market are less volatile than this stock.

Access comprehensive Stock Research on http://www.buysellsignals.com/2091181

PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS

The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors.

The following index and sectors fell setting the trend for its fall of 3.6%:

The Total Vietnam Market of 275 stocks traded today, which was down 3.1 points or 1.1% to 283.7,

VN index of 169 stocks traded today, which was down 3.1 points or 0.8% to 364.5,

Energy sector of 15 stocks traded today, which was down 0.9 points or 0.4% to 193.7

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

The stock meets the following value criteria set by Benjamin Graham:

-“A dividend yield of at least two-thirds the triple-A bond yield”; the stock’s dividend yield is 2.01 times the triple-A bond yield of 12.42%.

Other Bullish Signals:

– Price/Earnings of 4.3 versus sector average of 4.9 and market average of 5.0.

– The earnings yield of 23.15% is 1.9 times the 10-year bond yield of 12.42%.

– The Price to Book of 0.8 lower than average of 0.9 for the Energy sector.

– The P/E of 4.3 multiplied by the P/NTA of 0.8 is 3.3. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

Bearish Signals:

– Price/Sales of 3.13 versus sector average of 0.8 and market average of 1.0.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bullish Signals:

– In the Vietnam market of 275 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 83 which means it is beating 83% of the market.

– The price is below the lower Bollinger band of VND8,653.06; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 27.7 has breached the oversold line of 30; the stock is also oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -97.1.

Bearish Signals:

– The price crashed 25.9% in the last week and 20.0% in the last month.

– This has been exacerbated by robust volume of 2.4 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.8 times average for the month.

– Compared with the VN index which fell 4.5% for the week and 6.0% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease of 21.4% for the week and 14.0% for the month.

– The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.8, a bearish indicator. The 50-day EMAP has decreased to VND10,083.132. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

– The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is negative suggesting a bearish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are falling, another bearish signal.

– In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low once.

– In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.81 43 times suggesting further downside. The 200-day MAP has decreased to VND9,840.0. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

– The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.81, a bearish indicator.

Breakdown:

– In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low once.

– The bears are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close being below yesterday’s levels.

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS

Trailing one week: the stock fell four times (80% of the time) and was unchanged once (20% of the time). The volume was 2.4 times average trading of 1,483,610 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested a week ago is VND870 [vs VND956 for the VN index], including a capital loss of VND266(or loss of 26.6%) and dividend reinvested of VND136.

Trailing one month: the stock rose nine times (41% of the time), fell eight times (36% of the time) and was unchanged five times (23% of the time). The volume was 1.8 times average trading of 6,527,884 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested a month ago is VND948 [vs VND941 for the VN index], including a capital loss of VND200(or loss of 20.0%) and dividend reinvested ofVND148.

Trailing one year: the value of VND1,000 invested one year ago is VND752 [vs VND765 for the VN index], including a capital loss of VND365 and dividend reinvested of VND118. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -24.8%.

FUNDAMENTALS

ISSUED CAPITAL

Based on 202,241,000 issued equity shares the market capitalisation is VND1,617.9 billion (US$77 million).

ACTIVITIES

Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company generates electricity.

TOP MANAGEMENT

The chairman is Thanh Van Nguyen.

BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP

The last 5 company announcements are:

December 07: Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower recommends dividend

Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower today announced a cash dividend of VND2,000.0 per share. The ex dividend date is December 14, 2011 and the record date is December 16, 2011 and it is payable on December 28, 2011.

November 16: VSH: Explanation for business results in quarter 3/2011

November 01: Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower announces AGM

Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower has announced its Annual General Meeting will take place on December 02, 2011.

September 29: VSH: Explanation for the lateness of holding Annual General Meeting 2011

[News Story] Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company (VSHPC) would like to explain the lateness of holding Annual General Meeting 2011 as follows:In both of 2010 and 2011, VSHPC has not negotiated for electric power selling prices. Therefore, norms of profit and loss, profit distribution, dividend rate, etc.

July 26: VSH: Notice of trading of shares by a major shareholder