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The average daily volatility of 2.4% places the stock in the 4th quartile in the market meaning it is least volatile. Today its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 4.7% was 2.1 times the average daily volatility of 2.3%, up from 4.6% on Monday and 2.8% on Friday. A price fall on high volatility is a bearish signal. The stock price dropped VND500.0 (or 4.5%) to close at VND10,600.0, ending a four-day streak of rises. Compared with the VN index, which fell 1.0 points (or 0.2%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -4.3%.
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volume: there were 1,279,920 shares worth VND13.6 billion (US$645,593.7) traded. The volume was 4.3 times average trading of 299,488 shares.
% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 19.1% to the 12-month high of VND13,100.0 a year ago on 15 Dec, 2010.
% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 30.9% to the 12-month low of VND8,100.0 seven months ago on 26 May, 2011.
Volume weighted price (VWP): the price is at a premium of 0.6% to the 1-month volume weighted average price (VWP) of VND10,537.738. Given that this premium has exceeded 0.6% eighty-five times and been under 0.6% twenty-four times in the last year, the upside:downside probability is estimated at 85:24 or 3.5:1.
Rises to Falls: In the last three months the number of rises outnumbered falls 23:18 or 1.3:1.
Beta: The Beta of this stock is 0.49. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.
Standard Deviation (SD): SD is a statistical measure of deviation from the mean. The SD of 1.9% gives it a percentile rank of 5 meaning that 5% of stocks in the Vietnam market are less volatile than this stock.
Trailing month: in the last 21 trading sessions there has been a net rise of 6%; the stock has advanced 19 times and the biggest one day rise was 2.9% on Nov 30.
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PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS
The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors.
The following index and sectors fell setting the trend for its fall of 4.5%:
Energy sector of 16 stocks traded today, which was down 1.8 points or 0.8% to 208.2,
The Total Vietnam Market of 279 stocks traded today, which was down 0.9 points or 0.3% to 307.3,
VN index of 172 stocks traded today, which was down 1.0 points or 0.2% to 390.2
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
– The earnings yield of 17.47% is 1.4 times the 10-year bond yield of 12.88%.
– The P/E of 5.7 multiplied by the P/NTA of 1.0 is 5.7. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.
Bearish Signals:
– Price/Earnings of 5.7 versus sector average of 5.3 and market average of 5.5.
– Price/Sales of 4.14 versus sector average of 0.8 and market average of 1.1.
– The Price to Book of 1.0 higher than average of 1.0 for the Energy sector.
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
– The price rose 1.0% in the last week and advanced 6.0% in the last month.
– This has been propped up by high volume of 3.3 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.2 times average for the month.
– In the Vietnam market of 279 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 91 which means it is beating 91% of the market.
– The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.05, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.05 just thrice suggesting a resistance level. The 50-day EMAP has increased to VND10,131.491. An increase is another bullish indicator.
– The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
– The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.07, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.07 just thrice suggesting a resistance level. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of VND10,086.0 is higher than the 200-day MAP of VND9,923.0, another bullish indicator.
Bearish Signals:
– The Stochastic indicator of 84.6 has broken through the overbought line of 80.
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Trailing one week: the stock rose four times (80% of the time) and fell once (20% of the time). The volume was 3.3 times average trading of 1,497,440 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested a week ago is VND1,039 [vs VND1,019 for the VN index], for a capital gain of VND39(or rise of 3.9%).
Trailing one month: the stock rose ten times (45% of the time), was unchanged seven times (32% of the time) and fell five times (23% of the time). The volume was 1.2 times average trading of 6,588,736 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested a month ago is VND1,060 [vs VND951 for the VN index], for a capital gain of VND60(or rise of 6.0%).
Trailing one year: the value of VND1,000 invested one year ago is VND883 [vs VND865 for the VN index], for a capital loss of VND117. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -11.7%.
FUNDAMENTALS
ISSUED CAPITAL
Based on 202,241,000 issued equity shares the market capitalisation is VND2,143.8 billion (US$102 million).
ACTIVITIES
Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company generates electricity.
TOP MANAGEMENT
The chairman is Thanh Van Nguyen.
BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP
The last 5 company announcements are:
November 16: VSH: Explanation for business results in quarter 3/2011
[News Story] http://www.hsx.vn/hsx_en/Modules/News/NewsDetail.aspxid=73347 Source: HoChiMinh Stock Exchange
November 01: Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower announces AGM
Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower has announced its Annual General Meeting will take place on December 02, 2011.
September 29: VSH: Explanation for the lateness of holding Annual General Meeting 2011
[News Story] Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company (VSHPC) would like to explain the lateness of holding Annual General Meeting 2011 as follows:In both of 2010 and 2011, VSHPC has not negotiated for electric power selling prices. Therefore, norms of profit and loss, profit distribution, dividend rate, etc.
July 26: VSH: Notice of trading of shares by a major shareholder
[News Story] http://www.hsx.vn/hsx_en/Modules/News/NewsDetail.aspxid=67748 Source: HoChiMinh Stock Exchange
June 13: VSH: VSHPC delays the Annual General Meeting 2011
[News Story] Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company (VSHPC) would like to delay the Annual General Meeting 2011 (expected on June 21, 2011) because VSHPC has not sign the electricity trading contracts of 2010 and next years with the Electricity of Vietnam (EVN). VSHPC will announce an official meeting date as soon as possible.
Currency Conversion:Currency Conversion: US$1=21,015.0 Vietnamese Dong (VND). VND1 = 10Hao.