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The price is at a discount of 13.6% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of VND9,608.433, which may appeal as a value proposition. The stock was unchanged for a second day on Tuesday. Compared with the VN index, which fell 1.6 points (or 0.4%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 0.4%.
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility: the stock traded between an intraday low of VND8,300.0 and a high of VND8,400.0, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. The average daily volatility of 2.4% places the stock in the 4th quartile in the market meaning it is least volatile.
Volume: there were 129,020 shares worth VND1.1 billion (US$50,908.8) traded. The volume was 0.4 times average trading of 295,098 shares.
% Discount to high: the last price is at a discount of 35.2% to the 12-month high of VND12,800.0 eleven months ago on 17 Feb, 2011.
% Premium to low: the last price is at a premium of 5.1% to the 12-month low of VND7,900.0 nineteen-days ago on 15 Dec, 2011.
Falls to Rises: In the last three months the number of falls outnumbered rises 20:19 or 1.05:1.
Beta: The Beta of this stock is 0.49. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.
Standard Deviation (SD): SD is a statistical measure of deviation from the mean. The SD of 1.9% gives it a percentile rank of 5 meaning that 5% of stocks in the Vietnam market are less volatile than this stock.
Trailing month: in the last 21 trading sessions there has been a net decline of 25.23%; the stock has retreated 20 times and the biggest one day decline was 21.7% on Dec 14.
PRICE PERFORMANCE RANK IN INDEX AND SECTORS
The stock is in 1 index and 2 sectors.
The following index and sectors fell:
Energy sector of 16 stocks traded today, which was down 3.4 points or 1.8% to 188.2,
The Total Vietnam Market of 259 stocks traded today, which was down 2.8 points or 1.0% to 287.8,
VN index of 162 stocks traded today, which was down 1.6 points or 0.4% to 350.0
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The stock meets the following value criteria set by Benjamin Graham:
-“A dividend yield of at least two-thirds the triple-A bond yield”; the stock’s dividend yield is 1.93 times the triple-A bond yield of 12.5%.
Other Bullish Signals:
– Price/Earnings of 4.5 versus sector average of 4.8 and market average of 4.9.
– The earnings yield of 22.31% is 1.8 times the 10-year bond yield of 12.5%.
– The Price to Book of 0.8 lower than average of 0.9 for the Energy sector.
– The P/E of 4.5 multiplied by the P/NTA of 0.8 is 3.5. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.
Bearish Signals:
– Price/Sales of 3.24 versus sector average of 0.7 and market average of 1.0.
RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS [RVI] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
– The price increased 2.5% in the last week.
– Compared with the VN index which rose 0.6% for the week, this represented a relative price increase of 1.8% for the week.
– In the Vietnam market of 259 stocks traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 81 which means it is beating 81% of the market.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 17.1 has breached the oversold line of 30; the Stochastic indicator of 13.4 has broken through the oversold line of 20;.
Bearish Signals:
– The price crashed 23.1% in the last month.
– This has been exacerbated by firm volume of 1.9 times average for the month.
– Compared with the VN index which fell 8.8% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease of 14.3% for the month.
– The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.9, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.9 13 times suggesting further downside. The 50-day EMAP has decreased to VND9,377.303. A decrease is another bearish indicator.
– The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is negative suggesting a bearish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are falling, another bearish signal.
– In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low once.
– The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.86, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.86 89 times suggesting further downside. The 200-day MAP has decreased to VND9,649.50. A decrease is another bearish indicator.
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Trailing one week: the stock was unchanged twice (40% of the time), fell twice (40% of the time) and rose once (20% of the time). The volume was 0.6 times average trading of 1,475,490 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested a week ago is VND1,012 [vs VND1,007 for the VN index], for a capital gain of VND12(or rise of 1.2%).
Trailing one month: the stock fell nine times (43% of the time), was unchanged seven times (33% of the time) and rose five times (24% of the time). The volume was 1.9 times average trading of 6,492,156 shares. The value of VND1,000 invested a month ago is VND911 [vs VND913 for the VN index], including a capital loss of VND231(or loss of 23.1%) and dividend reinvested ofVND142.
Trailing one year: the value of VND1,000 invested one year ago is VND793 [vs VND750 for the VN index], including a capital loss of VND331 and dividend reinvested of VND124. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is -20.7%.
FUNDAMENTALS
ISSUED CAPITAL
Based on 202,241,000 issued equity shares the market capitalisation is VND1,678.6 billion (US$79.8 million).
ACTIVITIES
Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company generates electricity.
TOP MANAGEMENT
The chairman is Thanh Van Nguyen.
BUSINESS NEWS ROUND UP
The last 5 company announcements are:
December 07: Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower recommends dividend
Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower today announced a cash dividend of VND2,000.0 per share. The ex dividend date is December 14, 2011 and the record date is December 16, 2011 and it is payable on December 28, 2011.
November 16: VSH: Explanation for business results in quarter 3/2011
November 01: Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower announces AGM
Vinh Son-Song Hinh Hydropower has announced its Annual General Meeting will take place on December 02, 2011.
September 29: VSH: Explanation for the lateness of holding Annual General Meeting 2011
[News Story] Vinh Son – Song Hinh Hydropower Joint Stock Company (VSHPC) would like to explain the lateness of holding Annual General Meeting 2011 as follows:In both of 2010 and 2011, VSHPC has not negotiated for electric power selling prices. Therefore, norms of profit and loss, profit distribution, dividend rate, etc.
July 26: VSH: Notice of trading of shares by a major shareholder
Currency Conversion:Currency Conversion: US$1=21,035.0 Vietnamese Dong (VND). VND1 = 10Hao.