Tiếng Việt
普通话
23
November
Market commentary: High selling volume
The downtrend is dominant in the short term due to the selling pressure at a high level. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.
Research Center
22
November
PNJ – Brief – Nonrated – Exceeded the guidance
PNJ’s net revenue in Oct 2022 sharply rose by 42% yoy, 17% mom to VND3tn thanks to rising retail sale amid wedding season. Net profit in Oct 2022 increased 23% yoy to VND147bn thanks to the low base and upped 11% mom lower than the revenue growth. GPM in Oct 2022 fell 0.7%p yoy due to change in product mix, GPM in Oct 2022 also slightly decreased 0.2%p mom. Accumulating 10M22, revenue surged by 96% yoy to VND28.5tn, and NPAT shoot up by +118% yoy to VND1,487bn, correspondingly fulfilling 110.5% and 112.6% of guidance.
22
November
Covered warrant 14-18 Nov: Foreign demand comes back
Last week, trading volume slightly increased across the covered warrant market. However, trading value was decreased due to the active market correction period. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset attracted the most of trading interest from both foreign and domestic investors, followed by HPG, MBB, VHM, and VNM, mainly driving by CSTB2215 (44.4%) and CSTB2223 (65.5%).
22
November
Money market participants regain confidence
This week provides more evidence for the recovery in the money market, especially in terms of the trust, after a few weeks of SCB’s resolution. Interbank trading volume has increased significantly, likely indicating that participants are regaining confidence. However, the short-term funding cost is hard to return cheap when upward pressure on USDVND remains high. Hence, we predict the central bank to sustain OMO transactions at this price base to focus on forex stability.
22
November
Daily derivatives: Lower high is formed
Importantly, the selling pressure near 970 pts zone has formed the lower high pattern. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate signal. (Hourly chart)
22
November
Market commentary: Selling pressure
Selling pressure pushed the market down, implying a downtrend. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.
21
November
Fundflow 14-18 Nov: Inflow across Vietnam slowed down
Foreign demand kept increasing, mainly absorbed by Financials, Real Estate, and Materials, focusing on KDH, VIC, VHM, STB, SSI, and HPG . With ETF flow, inflow remained at high level across Vietnam although it dropped 43% wow, recorded at USD43mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on Vaneck and Diamond. Although Vietnam has attracted the positive flow of money for 8 consecutive weeks, we expect that the flow of money across Vietnam would slow down but remain positive in the upcoming weeks.
21
November
Daily derivatives: Entering the selling zone
Buy VN30F2212 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 930 pts level. (Hourly chart)
21
November
Market commentary: Divergent
In the short term, the downtrend is dominant in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.
21
November
Chart of the day: Short-term bottom is formed
Although there is the strong demand and the market has formed the short-term bottom, downtrend is still active. The downtrend would be paused only when 1,050 pts area is broken. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and take action only when the 1,050 pts zone is pierced.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.